{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcca0eb1-16a2-42c5-870e-4965bea9195c", "symbol": "LGI", "name": "Lazard Global Total Return and Income Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 65.396, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.56, "architecture_energy": 38.112, "architecture_maturity": 43.649, "architecture_confidence": 52.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.46, "rotation_up": 43.11, "upward_expansion": 71.55, "deceleration": 67.28, "rotation_down": 26.18, "downward_expansion": 9.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.285333, 18.245423, 17.993303, 17.783723 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.45, "trend_reference": 17.646553, "distance_from_trend": 0.04553, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.492507, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273072, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.6348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000411, "excess_performance": -0.125214, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04553, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036348, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000411, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.305968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259037, "relative_activity": 1.22095, "balance": 1.305968, "dry_up": 0.910313, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029376, "annualized_volatility": 0.222819, "from_high_reference": -0.039067, "from_low_reference": 0.236412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.646553, "fair_value_reference": 14.492507, "structural_low": 14.922205, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.015745, "positive_rate": 0.551724, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.010536, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.10915, "worst_return": -0.195862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005026, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.021326, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.058087, "worst_return": -0.096676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088432, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.02478, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.153996, "worst_return": -0.025008, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -0.739175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.043047, "energy": 69.532265, "activity_lines": [ 18.37176, 18.16968, 17.773226, 17.654678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.09, "volume": 130163, "typical_volume": 213223.9, "trend": 17.548449, "fair_value": 14.405174, "relative_strength": -1.232526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.074556, "energy": 64.617418, "activity_lines": [ 18.310745, 18.181495, 17.837302, 17.692629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.11, "volume": 221186, "typical_volume": 210156.25, "trend": 17.599592, "fair_value": 14.448049, "relative_strength": -2.162208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.411443, "energy": 43.266788, "activity_lines": [ 18.248588, 18.184947, 17.901762, 17.728858 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.45, "volume": 259037, "typical_volume": 212160.25, "trend": 17.646553, "fair_value": 14.492507, "relative_strength": -3.6348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.559729, "energy": 38.111913, "activity_lines": [ 18.285333, 18.245423, 17.993303, 17.783723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }