{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dccec6ac-a1e8-4c6a-a242-1c2591312255", "symbol": "CWK", "name": "Cushman & Wakefield plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.387, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.909, "architecture_energy": 3.281, "architecture_maturity": 19.148, "architecture_confidence": 49.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.52, "rotation_up": 25.85, "upward_expansion": 30.78, "deceleration": 53.51, "rotation_down": 29.28, "downward_expansion": 45.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.453333, 13.473091, 13.414333, 13.373613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.83, "trend_reference": 13.645667, "distance_from_trend": 0.013509, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.180256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135444, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.026103, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.144183, "excess_performance": -0.269808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013509, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059006, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059151, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.144183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.769831, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10709273, "relative_activity": 1.174093, "balance": 1.769831, "dry_up": 1.164901, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087296, "annualized_volatility": 0.480732, "from_high_reference": -0.205172, "from_low_reference": 0.195333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.645667, "fair_value_reference": 12.180256, "structural_low": 11.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.075131, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.077883, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.258741, "worst_return": -0.14242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13106, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.095654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425876, "worst_return": -0.318768, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.133455, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.104282, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277469, "worst_return": -0.333095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.237366, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.074348, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.419534, "worst_return": -0.486118, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.209115, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035285, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.089587, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.064286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051213, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.322004, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011553, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.053864, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040341, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.018957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013187, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.01, "volume": 10183004, "typical_volume": 12103175.95, "trend": 10.170333, "fair_value": 15.173333, "relative_strength": -26.00747, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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13.305476, 13.535226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.49, "volume": 7423147, "typical_volume": 9026742.6, "trend": 14.030333, "fair_value": 12.091859, "relative_strength": -16.596947, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.350725, "energy": 9.723846, "activity_lines": [ 13.577333, 13.376, 13.33619, 13.496495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.66, "volume": 8594798, "typical_volume": 8785937.95, "trend": 13.946333, "fair_value": 12.115641, "relative_strength": -14.249276, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.290269, "energy": 11.064903, "activity_lines": [ 13.628667, 13.443818, 13.382333, 13.472602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.72, "volume": 14916827, "typical_volume": 9112441.65, "trend": 13.819333, "fair_value": 12.135321, "relative_strength": -19.56068, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.524824, "energy": 11.229261, "activity_lines": [ 13.356, 13.350364, 13.337762, 13.393484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.42, "volume": 8280832, "typical_volume": 9087256.65, "trend": 13.738667, "fair_value": 12.155192, "relative_strength": -15.945694, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.327049, "energy": 10.652165, "activity_lines": [ 13.328667, 13.379273, 13.359571, 13.36772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.83, "volume": 10709273, "typical_volume": 9121317.05, "trend": 13.645667, "fair_value": 12.180256, "relative_strength": -16.026103, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.909439, "energy": 3.280945, "activity_lines": [ 13.453333, 13.473091, 13.414333, 13.373613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }