{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dcd42af3-e278-46a9-b04e-23ef549f0c9c",
    "symbol": "PNBGILTS",
    "name": "PNB Gilts Ltd.",
    "exchange": "NSI",
    "country": "IN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NSEI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch",
    "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 26.746,
    "architecture_energy": 19.185,
    "architecture_maturity": 49.649,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.361,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.65,
        "rotation_up": 19.25,
        "upward_expansion": 52.58,
        "deceleration": 93.39,
        "rotation_down": 32.92,
        "downward_expansion": 20.91
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        84.101332,
        86.565271,
        84.265475,
        81.521569
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 80.699997,
    "trend_reference": 79.246999,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.018335,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 95.967585,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159091,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -3.343011,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.007616,
    "excess_performance": 0.051326,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018335,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.023845,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.159091,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.072139,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.03343,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10837,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.007616,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 4.946133,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1804923,
      "relative_activity": 0.335765,
      "balance": 4.946133,
      "dry_up": 0.468726,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.095224,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.399476,
      "from_high_reference": -0.258813,
      "from_low_reference": 0.377133
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 79.246999,
      "fair_value_reference": 95.967585,
      "structural_low": 58.599998,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": -0.004733,
        "positive_rate": 0.388889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.388889,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023887,
        "regime_survival": 0.722222,
        "best_return": 0.429966,
        "worst_return": -0.123733,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.017694,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.375,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028021,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.518785,
        "worst_return": -0.32693,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.02139,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056652,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.694644,
        "worst_return": -0.333448,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.057838,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.11229,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.310843,
        "worst_return": -0.28457,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.011936,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.065994,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.116617,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.148642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009592,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.100517,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031314,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.080114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.042939,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.090336,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.198756,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-06-12",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.014026,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.056493,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04497,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1357161.1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 87.839996,
        "volume": 5004875,
        "typical_volume": 5312806.4,
        "trend": 79.006332,
        "fair_value": 95.586121,
        "relative_strength": 4.87795,
        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 57.752595,
        "energy": 42.580916,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.510002,
        "volume": 2115450,
        "typical_volume": 5366120.45,
        "trend": 79.143666,
        "fair_value": 95.720467,
        "relative_strength": 4.957099,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.417424,
        "energy": 30.39768,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 84.5,
        "volume": 1153384,
        "typical_volume": 5361427.3,
        "trend": 79.180999,
        "fair_value": 95.858409,
        "relative_strength": 1.513126,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.694021,
        "energy": 21.747597,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.287333,
          87.937999,
          84.15738,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 80.699997,
        "volume": 1804923,
        "typical_volume": 5375548.55,
        "trend": 79.246999,
        "fair_value": 95.967585,
        "relative_strength": -3.343011,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.745567,
        "energy": 19.184905,
        "activity_lines": [
          84.101332,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}