{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcd5be47-7002-4b72-89fa-3c0e856c5e70", "symbol": "IOB", "name": "Indian Overseas Bank", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 49.19, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.547, "architecture_energy": 13.396, "architecture_maturity": 18.786, "architecture_confidence": 60.304, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.2, "rotation_up": 22.1, "upward_expansion": 17.88, "deceleration": 53.81, "rotation_down": 43.04, "downward_expansion": 60.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.054667, 34.142545, 34.098762, 34.127355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 34.259998, "trend_reference": 34.311, "distance_from_trend": -0.001486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.246288, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.912786, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0158, "excess_performance": 0.027909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028687, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.246288, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024194, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011941, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.802433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11906763, "relative_activity": 0.699273, "balance": 1.802433, "dry_up": 1.369745, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036665, "annualized_volatility": 0.198713, "from_high_reference": -0.180383, "from_low_reference": 0.098077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.311, "fair_value_reference": 45.455, "structural_low": 31.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011906, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020391, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.219251, "worst_return": -0.090978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.016083, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032401, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.185615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.093239, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.122314, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.590818, "worst_return": -0.244385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.04564, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076588, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.644711, "worst_return": -0.389194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.263074, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.375289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049208, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.33006, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035794, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.031536, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054279, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009254, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 31.549999, "volume": 258536441, "typical_volume": 74605924.8, "trend": 25.33, "fair_value": 19.517949, "relative_strength": 22.671906, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.189762, "energy": 11.482779, "activity_lines": [ 34.314, 34.108909, 34.087619, 34.204688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.880001, "volume": 60437307, "typical_volume": 19976772.25, "trend": 34.449334, "fair_value": 45.381218, "relative_strength": -2.005883, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.400212, "energy": 7.441762, "activity_lines": [ 34.116667, 34.099818, 34.080048, 34.16785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 8506096, "typical_volume": 18842613.85, "trend": 34.338334, "fair_value": 45.431218, "relative_strength": -4.28884, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.034326, "energy": 14.054509, "activity_lines": [ 34.006667, 34.092728, 34.075333, 34.132409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.259998, "volume": 11906763, "typical_volume": 17027341.95, "trend": 34.311, "fair_value": 45.455, "relative_strength": -3.912786, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.546734, "energy": 13.395699, "activity_lines": [ 34.054667, 34.142545, 34.098762, 34.127355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }