{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcdd122d-6aac-4702-993c-02fa536e2130", "symbol": "ERII", "name": "Energy Recovery Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.557, "architecture_energy": 38.934, "architecture_maturity": 80.632, "architecture_confidence": 83.849, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.51, "rotation_up": 27.17, "upward_expansion": 5.56, "deceleration": 56.86, "rotation_down": 39.76, "downward_expansion": 74.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.615333, 8.675273, 8.873524, 9.423591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.68, "trend_reference": 10.540333, "distance_from_trend": -0.176497, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.862276, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.415971, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.496485, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.438914, "excess_performance": -0.626368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176497, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.415971, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02824, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.394965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04212, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.438914, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.921662, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5454842, "relative_activity": 1.111344, "balance": 0.921662, "dry_up": 0.868422, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091367, "annualized_volatility": 0.753335, "from_high_reference": -0.526201, "from_low_reference": 0.108557 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.540333, "fair_value_reference": 14.862276, "structural_low": 7.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.010264, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.005667, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.222669, "worst_return": -0.178218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.07295, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.10566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.375072, "worst_return": -0.217481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.12568, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.027659, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.376368, "worst_return": -0.246703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127323, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019243, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12489, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": 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"close": 8.62, "volume": 3504853, "typical_volume": 4982343.9, "trend": 11.074, "fair_value": 15.241186, "relative_strength": -39.609394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.653937, "energy": 36.664462, "activity_lines": [ 8.773333, 8.692, 9.10119, 9.871269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.42, "volume": 2823707, "typical_volume": 4856154.3, "trend": 10.892, "fair_value": 15.103301, "relative_strength": -39.355298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.126933, "energy": 42.725105, "activity_lines": [ 8.618, 8.655636, 9.000571, 9.700043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.65, "volume": 5266604, "typical_volume": 4865546.8, "trend": 10.723, "fair_value": 14.98234, "relative_strength": -37.410225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.656049, "energy": 38.720596, "activity_lines": [ 8.606, 8.660909, 8.932286, 9.555398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.68, "volume": 5454842, "typical_volume": 4908327.0, "trend": 10.540333, "fair_value": 14.862276, "relative_strength": -39.496485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.556562, "energy": 38.934012, "activity_lines": [ 8.615333, 8.675273, 8.873524, 9.423591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }