{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dce0cddc-c248-4e16-9a3a-a433ef01d2a5", "symbol": "DTG", "name": "Daimler Truck Holding AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.792, "architecture_energy": 81.255, "architecture_maturity": 43.247, "architecture_confidence": 72.299, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.93, "rotation_up": 78.93, "upward_expansion": 94.77, "deceleration": 41.89, "rotation_down": 8.57, "downward_expansion": 19.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 46.075334, 44.563273, 43.11395, 42.36405 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 46.310001, "trend_reference": 41.511938, "distance_from_trend": 0.115583, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.108721, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.690836, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105102, "excess_performance": -0.069144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115583, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069253, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127124, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069319, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.957895, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 564, "relative_activity": 1.925572, "balance": 4.957895, "dry_up": 3.245988, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047141, "annualized_volatility": 0.288449, "from_high_reference": -0.072873, "from_low_reference": 0.442297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.511938, "fair_value_reference": 35.108721, "structural_low": 36.92096, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.01236, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.036291, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.251758, "worst_return": -0.186235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016609, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.046796, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.158932, "worst_return": -0.153501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.0356, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.081342, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084782, "worst_return": 0.008088, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 247, "typical_volume": 515.4, "trend": 40.464169, "fair_value": 34.774747, "relative_strength": -7.884837, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.514359, "energy": 41.812309, "activity_lines": [ 42.343333, 41.99709, 41.522483, 41.171721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.990002, "volume": 2734, "typical_volume": 457.85, "trend": 40.813989, "fair_value": 34.879838, "relative_strength": -1.067715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.293943, "energy": 72.717073, "activity_lines": [ 43.622667, 42.797636, 41.992241, 41.528226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.700001, "volume": 258, "typical_volume": 265.4, "trend": 41.240748, "fair_value": 35.001745, "relative_strength": 4.991227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.798273, "energy": 86.936829, "activity_lines": [ 45.502667, 43.976, 42.685201, 42.037001 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.310001, "volume": 564, "typical_volume": 292.9, "trend": 41.511938, "fair_value": 35.108721, "relative_strength": -2.690836, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.792133, "energy": 81.254733, "activity_lines": [ 46.075334, 44.563273, 43.11395, 42.36405 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }