{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dce73869-b457-490e-b814-728a10a1a589",
    "symbol": "EXP",
    "name": "Eagle Materials Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 69.858,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -3.284,
    "architecture_energy": 8.047,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.946,
    "architecture_confidence": 52.554,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 60.7,
        "rotation_up": 19.88,
        "upward_expansion": 19.96,
        "deceleration": 67.33,
        "rotation_down": 45.59,
        "downward_expansion": 33.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        210.231333,
        213.601147,
        212.322357,
        209.846153
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 214.29,
    "trend_reference": 209.974282,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.020554,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 224.771367,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046631,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.823532,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.048828,
    "excess_performance": -0.174453,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020554,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.001515,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.046631,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004931,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.118235,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018435,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048828,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.173081,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2007419,
      "relative_activity": 0.935583,
      "balance": 1.173081,
      "dry_up": 1.246446,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.085078,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.377923,
      "from_high_reference": -0.127235,
      "from_low_reference": 0.247374
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 209.974282,
      "fair_value_reference": 224.771367,
      "structural_low": 171.792954,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.040506,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020149,
        "regime_survival": 0.307692,
        "best_return": 0.140351,
        "worst_return": -0.128669,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.145286,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052924,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.388443,
        "worst_return": -0.176682,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.002713,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.077148,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.331703,
        "worst_return": -0.043173,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.248227,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.151882,
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        "best_return": 0.760394,
        "worst_return": -0.214493,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.111484,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.016593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.038089,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      {
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 2075061.5,
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        "stage": 1,
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 2.326689,
        "energy": 6.985707,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 213.55,
        "volume": 2205104,
        "typical_volume": 2087095.65,
        "trend": 210.86669,
        "fair_value": 224.434128,
        "relative_strength": -8.942415,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 1.82361,
        "energy": 7.845323,
        "activity_lines": [
          212.99,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 204.94,
        "volume": 4057484,
        "typical_volume": 2183792.05,
        "trend": 210.667153,
        "fair_value": 224.558583,
        "relative_strength": -13.127103,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -10.879927,
        "energy": 13.657354,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 214.29,
        "volume": 2007419,
        "typical_volume": 2145635.0,
        "trend": 209.974282,
        "fair_value": 224.771367,
        "relative_strength": -11.823532,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -3.283842,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}