{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcea221c-8426-4614-8261-f7317f249dbd", "symbol": "VZLA", "name": "Vizsla Silver Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.152, "architecture_energy": 13.472, "architecture_maturity": 55.431, "architecture_confidence": 66.368, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.59, "rotation_up": 22.55, "upward_expansion": 9.53, "deceleration": 61.87, "rotation_down": 36.53, "downward_expansion": 66.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.701333, 4.689455, 4.735905, 4.814022 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.2, "trend_reference": 5.202667, "distance_from_trend": -0.000513, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.550897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.464419, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.23849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.170654, "excess_performance": -0.291075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000513, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.464419, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009348, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03019, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170654, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698615, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5040400, "relative_activity": 0.96368, "balance": 0.698615, "dry_up": 0.869208, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109098, "annualized_volatility": 0.664168, "from_high_reference": -0.470468, "from_low_reference": 0.290323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.202667, "fair_value_reference": 3.550897, "structural_low": 4.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.004658, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.396825, "worst_return": -0.213043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014338, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.24031, "worst_return": -0.43913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.089674, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.304348, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.298913, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.258408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.152174, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-06-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-07-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131034, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018072, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.276316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.335052, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.743671, "active": 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"volume": 6049200, "typical_volume": 6237295.0, "trend": 5.399, "fair_value": 3.507436, "relative_strength": -24.840272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.497649, "energy": 34.962098, "activity_lines": [ 4.549333, 4.673091, 4.713524, 4.885677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 2845500, "typical_volume": 6059300.0, "trend": 5.291667, "fair_value": 3.526282, "relative_strength": -29.03157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.849323, "energy": 40.399842, "activity_lines": [ 4.48, 4.604182, 4.684429, 4.819935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.2, "volume": 5040400, "typical_volume": 5230365.0, "trend": 5.202667, "fair_value": 3.550897, "relative_strength": -18.23849, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.151743, "energy": 13.472255, "activity_lines": [ 4.701333, 4.689455, 4.735905, 4.814022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }