{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcea8b87-980e-412a-ad99-766a66721d51", "symbol": "PAB", "name": "PGIM ETF TRUST ACTIVE AGGREGATE BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.925, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.377, "architecture_energy": 49.376, "architecture_maturity": 2.612, "architecture_confidence": 87.556, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.09, "rotation_up": 12.99, "upward_expansion": 10.27, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 62.07, "downward_expansion": 85.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.583778, 41.70585, 41.798166, 41.872231 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.6543, "trend_reference": 41.97516, "distance_from_trend": -0.007644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.680242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049749, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.393858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012181, "excess_performance": -0.137806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049749, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020609, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113939, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014086, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012181, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.660849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49176, "relative_activity": 0.512951, "balance": 4.660849, "dry_up": 0.456712, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01211, "annualized_volatility": 0.042714, "from_high_reference": -0.036613, "from_low_reference": 0.0235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.97516, "fair_value_reference": 39.680242, "structural_low": 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"direction": -27.096984, "energy": 13.933645, "activity_lines": [ 41.982463, 41.924868, 41.95111, 42.001225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.731384, "volume": 27951, "typical_volume": 112873.6, "trend": 42.025426, "fair_value": 39.556254, "relative_strength": -10.174603, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.935407, "energy": 14.900583, "activity_lines": [ 41.908001, 41.895754, 41.923903, 41.982206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.741347, "volume": 33321, "typical_volume": 112077.05, "trend": 42.020933, "fair_value": 39.586679, "relative_strength": -8.49453, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.41577, "energy": 23.926209, "activity_lines": [ 41.83896, 41.871401, 41.90146, 41.963878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.483297, "volume": 40190, "typical_volume": 99358.65, "trend": 42.004094, "fair_value": 39.6162, "relative_strength": -8.291152, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.600164, "energy": 44.07494, "activity_lines": [ 41.699345, 41.805332, 41.859238, 41.929192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.4553, "volume": 52451, "typical_volume": 98451.8, "trend": 41.988402, "fair_value": 39.646869, "relative_strength": -9.032318, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.730424, "energy": 53.111683, "activity_lines": [ 41.587035, 41.735324, 41.818199, 41.893786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.6543, "volume": 49176, "typical_volume": 95868.85, "trend": 41.97516, "fair_value": 39.680242, "relative_strength": -11.393858, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.377217, "energy": 49.375796, "activity_lines": [ 41.583778, 41.70585, 41.798166, 41.872231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }