{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dcf42f97-f717-4b75-b142-82487a888371", "symbol": "NFM", "name": "New Frontier Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.84, "architecture_energy": 43.888, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.43, "rotation_up": 27.31, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 48.09, "downward_expansion": 79.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006133, 0.0062, 0.006488, 0.007498 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.00965, "distance_from_trend": -0.274611, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010468, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.331292, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -48.878667, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.588235, "excess_performance": -0.651941, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.274611, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.321219, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.331292, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013639, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.488787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.588235, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10049584, "relative_activity": 1.495568, "balance": 0.712846, "dry_up": 1.014739, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.175824, "annualized_volatility": 1.058661, "from_high_reference": -0.758621, "from_low_reference": 0.4 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00965, "fair_value_reference": 0.010468, "structural_low": 0.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.054094, "positive_rate": 0.289474, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.062173, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.218642, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.444444, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029605, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.777778, "worst_return": -0.612903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.011639, "energy": 56.298144, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006518, 0.007026, 0.008702 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 6706240, "typical_volume": 10000043.45, "trend": 0.010883, "fair_value": 0.010513, "relative_strength": -55.491604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.625287, "energy": 58.399374, "activity_lines": [ 0.006333, 0.006418, 0.006838, 0.008363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.006, "volume": 5506123, "typical_volume": 8894428.05, "trend": 0.010483, "fair_value": 0.010494, "relative_strength": -54.839986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.892202, "energy": 52.435829, "activity_lines": [ 0.0062, 0.006336, 0.006698, 0.008048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 5012525, "typical_volume": 7850269.5, "trend": 0.01005, "fair_value": 0.010468, "relative_strength": -62.722603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.737626, "energy": 56.201936, "activity_lines": [ 0.0058, 0.006073, 0.006486, 0.007695 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 10049584, "typical_volume": 6719577.25, "trend": 0.00965, "fair_value": 0.010468, "relative_strength": -48.878667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.839592, "energy": 43.887598, "activity_lines": [ 0.006133, 0.0062, 0.006488, 0.007498 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }