{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd015cb1-fb86-4331-9599-cb70e1b78124", "symbol": "6020", "name": "Al Gassim Investment Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.855, "architecture_energy": 36.584, "architecture_maturity": 72.732, "architecture_confidence": 88.682, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.73, "rotation_up": 20.39, "upward_expansion": 3.93, "deceleration": 54.47, "rotation_down": 49.48, "downward_expansion": 74.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.272, 12.413636, 12.491714, 12.791613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.23, "trend_reference": 13.400667, "distance_from_trend": -0.087359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.08859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284318, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.850342, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.202738, "excess_performance": -0.170909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284318, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013719, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168503, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037116, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202738, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.821872, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 434367, "relative_activity": 0.730335, "balance": 0.821872, "dry_up": 0.58221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058997, "annualized_volatility": 0.267635, "from_high_reference": -0.374425, "from_low_reference": 0.047089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.400667, "fair_value_reference": 17.08859, "structural_low": 11.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.004435, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.484848, "median_excess_return": -0.009548, "regime_survival": 0.848485, "best_return": 0.247619, "worst_return": -0.191837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.052814, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.370238, "worst_return": -0.177379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.012605, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.042276, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.514881, "worst_return": -0.249691, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071281, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015029, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", 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246626, "typical_volume": 581568.4, "trend": 13.775333, "fair_value": 17.297051, "relative_strength": -15.002323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.069, "energy": 18.648214, "activity_lines": [ 12.686, 12.531455, 12.684905, 13.074129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.14, "volume": 301317, "typical_volume": 574265.25, "trend": 13.644, "fair_value": 17.223205, "relative_strength": -17.960043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.372774, "energy": 24.771627, "activity_lines": [ 12.512667, 12.488182, 12.612619, 12.968624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.17, "volume": 402767, "typical_volume": 574910.15, "trend": 13.499667, "fair_value": 17.154551, "relative_strength": -15.712033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.371646, "energy": 34.434417, "activity_lines": [ 12.372667, 12.447818, 12.547048, 12.873527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.23, "volume": 434367, "typical_volume": 594750.15, "trend": 13.400667, "fair_value": 17.08859, "relative_strength": -16.850342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.854868, "energy": 36.58359, "activity_lines": [ 12.272, 12.413636, 12.491714, 12.791613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }