{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd05ffcd-43a9-43e2-993b-265b545c493f", "symbol": "YFID", "name": "Fidere Patrimonio Socimi, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.505, "architecture_energy": 61.025, "architecture_maturity": 34.146, "architecture_confidence": 64.347, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.16, "rotation_up": 36.84, "upward_expansion": 32.44, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 31.11, "downward_expansion": 42.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 40.0, 40.106667, 40.205161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.0, "trend_reference": 40.073333, "distance_from_trend": -0.00183, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.675641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.175368, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04712, "excess_performance": -0.07731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033706, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061694, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017209, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101754, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04712, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001538, "annualized_volatility": 0.096399, "from_high_reference": -0.065421, "from_low_reference": 0.176471 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.073333, "fair_value_reference": 37.675641, "structural_low": 38.200001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.048945, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.036767, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.036767, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05923, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.156463, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084325, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.062604, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204082, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.056837, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.325748, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387755, "worst_return": -0.274081, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-07-14", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052941, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139665, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019608, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 42.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 41.55394, "fair_value": 25.070123, "relative_strength": -4.258578, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.997197, "energy": 68.093185, 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26.957079, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 40.0, 40.209524, 40.180215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.0, "trend": 39.886666, "fair_value": 37.701282, "relative_strength": -8.024242, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.163246, "energy": 24.670628, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 40.0, 40.171428, 40.196559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.15, "trend": 39.98, "fair_value": 37.688461, "relative_strength": -8.637968, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.373274, "energy": 23.640518, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 40.0, 40.137143, 40.203871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 44.15, "trend": 40.073333, "fair_value": 37.675641, "relative_strength": -10.175368, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.504565, "energy": 61.025448, "activity_lines": [ 40.0, 40.0, 40.106667, 40.205161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }