{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd066aaf-a00e-49e0-852f-1fdbab09d6e5", "symbol": "300151", "name": "Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 59.922, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.721, "architecture_energy": 41.256, "architecture_maturity": 21.904, "architecture_confidence": 54.465, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.7, "rotation_up": 16.69, "upward_expansion": 20.69, "deceleration": 63.16, "rotation_down": 67.56, "downward_expansion": 43.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.438, 18.224545, 19.448453, 19.089585 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.559999, "trend_reference": 18.5229, "distance_from_trend": -0.105972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.880604, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042781, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.700845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.004639, "excess_performance": -0.002761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042781, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07975, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.004639, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.608212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 88812963, "relative_activity": 1.125052, "balance": 1.608212, "dry_up": 1.212084, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207881, "annualized_volatility": 0.845073, "from_high_reference": -0.403888, "from_low_reference": 0.347388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.5229, "fair_value_reference": 15.880604, "structural_low": 12.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019922, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.022896, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.140127, "worst_return": -0.189478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.087713, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072548, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213376, "worst_return": -0.428889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054298, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261955, "worst_return": -0.299747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 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"orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.127589, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058492, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.150267, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -7.604098, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.04463, "energy": 11.768847, "activity_lines": [ 20.923333, 21.845272, 20.764337, 19.806484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.15, "volume": 115432629, "typical_volume": 76160081.05, "trend": 18.502923, "fair_value": 15.924203, "relative_strength": -13.134531, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.773319, "energy": 27.614392, "activity_lines": [ 18.262666, 20.41, 20.248618, 19.527293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.63, "volume": 80707014, "typical_volume": 77215332.5, "trend": 18.471548, "fair_value": 15.890902, "relative_strength": -14.838385, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.012177, "energy": 44.943881, "activity_lines": [ 16.003333, 18.978, 19.699656, 19.212911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.559999, "volume": 88812963, "typical_volume": 78941173.6, "trend": 18.5229, "fair_value": 15.880604, "relative_strength": -1.700845, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.720889, "energy": 41.256244, "activity_lines": [ 15.438, 18.224545, 19.448453, 19.089585 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }