{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd06d70f-800f-4909-b248-0ae05fb97199", "symbol": "CVNA", "name": "Carvana Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.135, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.8, "architecture_energy": 14.569, "architecture_maturity": 36.605, "architecture_confidence": 69.592, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.81, "rotation_up": 21.35, "upward_expansion": 9.58, "deceleration": 57.15, "rotation_down": 38.25, "downward_expansion": 66.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.705333, 65.574, 67.379105, 67.72772 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 70.85, "trend_reference": 69.814733, "distance_from_trend": 0.014829, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.781782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.582117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.132254, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.122427, "excess_performance": -0.248052, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05754, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.582117, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.379844, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.122427, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.17584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44854105, "relative_activity": 1.168953, "balance": 1.17584, "dry_up": 1.364696, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133472, "annualized_volatility": 0.562681, "from_high_reference": -0.272423, "from_low_reference": 0.300859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.814733, "fair_value_reference": 44.781782, "structural_low": 54.464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.022472, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.020205, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 1.357542, "worst_return": -0.164399, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.433066, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.346471, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.50937, "worst_return": 0.0142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 1.063858, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.860995, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 4.143571, "worst_return": 0.248124, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 4.183965, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 3.877829, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 7.642946, "worst_return": 0.724984, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.396929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276896, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014072, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139855, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.303176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.074098, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.842, "volume": 38200194, "typical_volume": 117871866.05, "trend": 3.736067, "fair_value": 29.260282, "relative_strength": 115.674997, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.937897, "energy": 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"energy": 24.66046, "activity_lines": [ 66.472, 66.540909, 68.256105, 69.020503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.46, "volume": 44585714, "typical_volume": 33373503.95, "trend": 71.13, "fair_value": 44.038821, "relative_strength": -22.319546, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.340387, "energy": 29.607691, "activity_lines": [ 64.58, 65.356545, 67.567533, 68.273548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.36, "volume": 83716477, "typical_volume": 36890875.45, "trend": 70.540333, "fair_value": 44.380308, "relative_strength": -20.220713, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.311811, "energy": 29.702965, "activity_lines": [ 63.728, 64.639636, 67.074581, 67.707742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.85, "volume": 44854105, "typical_volume": 38371172.35, "trend": 69.814733, "fair_value": 44.781782, "relative_strength": -12.132254, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.800154, "energy": 14.569463, "activity_lines": [ 65.705333, 65.574, 67.379105, 67.72772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }