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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.272, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.156, "architecture_energy": 58.952, "architecture_maturity": 88.99, "architecture_confidence": 62.001, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.88, "rotation_up": 49.52, "upward_expansion": 80.9, "deceleration": 71.4, "rotation_down": 29.24, "downward_expansion": 9.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 160.123333, 159.805224, 157.669183, 154.519292 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 163.149994, "trend_reference": 150.802737, "distance_from_trend": 0.081877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 126.480975, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289917, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.528895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134482, "excess_performance": -0.03641, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043688, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289917, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027936, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134482, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.932033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94455, "relative_activity": 3.082147, "balance": 2.932033, "dry_up": 1.778601, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018924, "annualized_volatility": 0.114224, "from_high_reference": -0.002507, "from_low_reference": 0.246232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 150.802737, "fair_value_reference": 126.480975, "structural_low": 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159.130005, "volume": 42785, "typical_volume": 30589.4, "trend": 149.649538, "fair_value": 125.687584, "relative_strength": -2.60349, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.175289, "energy": 61.898268, "activity_lines": [ 159.481333, 159.196368, 156.194719, 153.16169 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.740005, "volume": 33914, "typical_volume": 30433.75, "trend": 150.197633, "fair_value": 126.064081, "relative_strength": -4.027214, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.409838, "energy": 47.452969, "activity_lines": [ 158.874668, 159.019654, 156.709826, 153.683656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 163.149994, "volume": 94455, "typical_volume": 30645.85, "trend": 150.802737, "fair_value": 126.480975, "relative_strength": -3.528895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.155999, "energy": 58.951798, "activity_lines": [ 160.123333, 159.805224, 157.669183, 154.519292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }