{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd0c6b11-9d82-4ed2-b8f6-139e71f1640b", "symbol": "ULTRACEMCO", "name": "UltraTech Cement Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.431, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.972, "architecture_energy": 39.949, "architecture_maturity": 8.531, "architecture_confidence": 78.8, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.03, "rotation_up": 61.94, "upward_expansion": 44.83, "deceleration": 26.12, "rotation_down": 15.11, "downward_expansion": 19.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 11817.713737, 11631.326421, 11548.641955, 11572.665953 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12105.0, "trend_reference": 11733.729525, "distance_from_trend": 0.031641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10957.363294, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.104737, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.720155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.048499, "excess_performance": -0.00479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007914, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.104737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.027202, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.571528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 881058, "relative_activity": 0.704714, "balance": 1.571528, "dry_up": 1.218735, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034434, "annualized_volatility": 0.275992, "from_high_reference": -0.076659, "from_low_reference": 0.172397 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11733.729525, "fair_value_reference": 10957.363294, "structural_low": 10325.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.012054, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00142, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.113239, "worst_return": -0.186749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058669, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015413, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.086271, "worst_return": -0.190775, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.054655, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053933, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150002, 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11371.693803, 11417.917174, 11547.886137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11609.041016, "volume": 2214793, "typical_volume": 1350123.75, "trend": 11729.329525, "fair_value": 10906.882844, "relative_strength": 1.788013, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.501244, "energy": 14.718104, "activity_lines": [ 11512.086393, 11416.049538, 11438.464676, 11539.727827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11863.0, "volume": 1586183, "typical_volume": 1302312.9, "trend": 11728.129525, "fair_value": 10931.267641, "relative_strength": 1.413103, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.057455, "energy": 13.207585, "activity_lines": [ 11644.69401, 11504.360707, 11484.998554, 11548.351728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12105.0, "volume": 881058, "typical_volume": 1250235.5, "trend": 11733.729525, "fair_value": 10957.363294, "relative_strength": 2.720155, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.971863, "energy": 39.948992, "activity_lines": [ 11817.713737, 11631.326421, 11548.641955, 11572.665953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }