{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd114f8e-f6f6-4a35-be09-acb3b3754ff7", "symbol": "RNO", "name": "Renault SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.096, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.638, "architecture_energy": 10.179, "architecture_maturity": 36.508, "architecture_confidence": 71.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.38, "rotation_up": 30.78, "upward_expansion": 16.92, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 62.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.327332, 26.982363, 27.359906, 27.552175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.639999, "trend_reference": 27.979601, "distance_from_trend": 0.023603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.764815, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.399091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.001711, "excess_performance": -0.055022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067811, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025746, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.49764, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6826754, "relative_activity": 1.368051, "balance": 1.49764, "dry_up": 1.325715, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061936, "annualized_volatility": 0.349706, "from_high_reference": -0.188381, "from_low_reference": 0.1469 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.979601, "fair_value_reference": 34.764815, "structural_low": 24.971672, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.021061, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.012528, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.161498, "worst_return": -0.205969, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023767, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.010956, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.330768, "worst_return": -0.117415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.067919, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.015784, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.372452, "worst_return": -0.103108, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 6195889, "typical_volume": 4952474.35, "trend": 28.280044, "fair_value": 34.821581, "relative_strength": -15.464256, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.908319, "energy": 53.419589, "activity_lines": [ 26.099999, 26.601818, 27.236331, 27.56263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.549999, "volume": 7567724, "typical_volume": 4969226.6, "trend": 28.072003, "fair_value": 34.788037, "relative_strength": -12.0095, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.356465, "energy": 30.418994, "activity_lines": [ 26.581332, 26.690181, 27.248812, 27.51553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.639999, "volume": 6826754, "typical_volume": 4990132.6, "trend": 27.979601, "fair_value": 34.764815, "relative_strength": -10.399091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.637738, "energy": 10.179381, "activity_lines": [ 27.327332, 26.982363, 27.359906, 27.552175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }