{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd120f19-de3a-45af-81ee-8678822f2ed9", "symbol": "LCCN", "name": "Amundi MSCI China UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.524, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.064, "architecture_energy": 20.073, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 42.192, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.03, "rotation_up": 44.1, "upward_expansion": 27.62, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 15.26, "downward_expansion": 50.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.365599, 18.035199, 18.104323, 18.28189 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.761999, "trend_reference": 18.644833, "distance_from_trend": 0.006284, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.697314, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123654, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.009144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051562, "excess_performance": -0.222454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006284, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123654, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170091, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033059, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.46514, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38346, "relative_activity": 0.352892, "balance": 0.46514, "dry_up": 0.561254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027781, "annualized_volatility": 0.172243, "from_high_reference": -0.128362, "from_low_reference": 0.119852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.644833, "fair_value_reference": 16.697314, "structural_low": 16.754, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005198, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.03856, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.129977, "worst_return": -0.097418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022848, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.044693, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.21459, "worst_return": -0.099401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011771, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.180959, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.087993, "worst_return": -0.153988, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046307, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055599, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.889999, "volume": 132907, "typical_volume": 132357.5, "trend": 18.867633, "fair_value": 16.612147, "relative_strength": -20.751236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.589999, "energy": 74.439668, "activity_lines": [ 17.523733, 17.737236, 18.098724, 18.411299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.778, "volume": 77748, "typical_volume": 128914.55, "trend": 18.801233, "fair_value": 16.634481, "relative_strength": -19.716123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.662697, "energy": 53.607946, "activity_lines": [ 17.5912, 17.701018, 18.045952, 18.341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.059999, "volume": 65020, "typical_volume": 118387.6, "trend": 18.7517, "fair_value": 16.649968, "relative_strength": -17.909317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.844613, "energy": 34.051964, "activity_lines": [ 17.771333, 17.736945, 18.026276, 18.293178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.511999, "volume": 62834, "typical_volume": 115857.35, "trend": 18.697266, "fair_value": 16.670417, "relative_strength": -16.06668, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.114035, "energy": 20.661675, "activity_lines": [ 18.075999, 17.866218, 18.0516, 18.277714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.761999, "volume": 38346, "typical_volume": 108662.1, "trend": 18.644833, "fair_value": 16.697314, "relative_strength": -17.009144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.064214, "energy": 20.073225, "activity_lines": [ 18.365599, 18.035199, 18.104323, 18.28189 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }