{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd1ec715-6ef5-47a7-8a5b-b6fa60f93369", "symbol": "CMOTEC-B", "name": "Scandinavian ChemoTech AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.392, "architecture_energy": 45.7, "architecture_maturity": 7.73, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.42, "rotation_up": 15.68, "upward_expansion": 11.78, "deceleration": 36.67, "rotation_down": 55.15, "downward_expansion": 80.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.364667, 3.482182, 3.573571, 3.614151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 3.662333, "distance_from_trend": -0.07163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.78748, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.834518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042254, "excess_performance": -0.103748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21974, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148199, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221255, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042254, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.494871, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25034, "relative_activity": 0.506368, "balance": 0.494871, "dry_up": 0.643356, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.153394, "annualized_volatility": 0.580829, "from_high_reference": -0.561856, "from_low_reference": 0.259259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.662333, "fair_value_reference": 2.78748, "structural_low": 2.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.027981, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.047725, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.637736, "worst_return": -0.3275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.048779, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045972, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.658537, "worst_return": -0.400498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.26178, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.274492, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.347518, "worst_return": -0.569925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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3.700143, 3.727591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.67, "volume": 64820, "typical_volume": 60609.85, "trend": 3.819333, "fair_value": 2.807865, "relative_strength": -17.166077, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.953311, "energy": 11.383244, "activity_lines": [ 3.697333, 3.661636, 3.697143, 3.716172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.6, "volume": 9533, "typical_volume": 57517.3, "trend": 3.785, "fair_value": 2.805044, "relative_strength": -18.327198, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.147478, "energy": 12.149182, "activity_lines": [ 3.673333, 3.651636, 3.688952, 3.702022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.16, "volume": 65121, "typical_volume": 57514.4, "trend": 3.730667, "fair_value": 2.79825, "relative_strength": -29.665419, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.66997, "energy": 34.592256, "activity_lines": [ 3.498667, 3.567091, 3.638429, 3.661699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.28, "volume": 27538, "typical_volume": 53314.35, "trend": 3.686333, "fair_value": 2.792224, "relative_strength": -28.081094, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.471932, "energy": 44.050174, "activity_lines": [ 3.395333, 3.512909, 3.60081, 3.632624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 25034, "typical_volume": 49438.4, "trend": 3.662333, "fair_value": 2.78748, "relative_strength": -26.834518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.391937, "energy": 45.699822, "activity_lines": [ 3.364667, 3.482182, 3.573571, 3.614151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }