{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd264a84-a07b-4878-8a66-87c4ed8b0722", "symbol": "TALN", "name": "TAL Education Group", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 83.103, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 50.772, "architecture_energy": 62.147, "architecture_maturity": 40.407, "architecture_confidence": 84.507, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.31, "rotation_up": 75.84, "upward_expansion": 44.38, "deceleration": 44.64, "rotation_down": 16.67, "downward_expansion": 30.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.269332, 182.010726, 178.82638, 181.87701 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 205.0, "trend_reference": 189.799333, "distance_from_trend": 0.080088, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 201.483718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.268256, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063927, "excess_performance": -0.00926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080088, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112862, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028204, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.147177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.598058, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64, "relative_activity": 0.291174, "balance": 4.598058, "dry_up": 2.651274, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036822, "annualized_volatility": 0.378803, "from_high_reference": -0.174685, "from_low_reference": 0.322581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 189.799333, "fair_value_reference": 201.483718, "structural_low": 155.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002372, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.014703, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.244875, "worst_return": -0.168045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.210677, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.319356, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.494375, "worst_return": -0.079027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.31634, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.30886, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.526316, "worst_return": 0.275125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.3, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.270229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.503007, "worst_return": -0.065073, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024337, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.137459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069724, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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186.093094, 196.453332 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 165.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 153.45, "trend": 208.506332, "fair_value": 198.188654, "relative_strength": -25.317599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.893602, "energy": 92.457817, "activity_lines": [ 167.866667, 176.417636, 183.374618, 193.47101 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 158.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 148.45, "trend": 205.553332, "fair_value": 198.554103, "relative_strength": -27.723557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.604044, "energy": 95.359941, "activity_lines": [ 163.266667, 172.068727, 180.377999, 190.212537 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 155.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 148.45, "trend": 202.500332, "fair_value": 198.900256, "relative_strength": -28.107772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.704484, "energy": 87.410971, "activity_lines": [ 160.0, 167.774363, 177.386142, 186.951031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 155.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 135.95, "trend": 199.447332, "fair_value": 199.214359, "relative_strength": -27.525618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.972376, "energy": 82.147468, "activity_lines": [ 157.6, 164.116364, 174.699047, 183.886494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 170.0, "volume": 101, "typical_volume": 134.75, "trend": 196.894332, "fair_value": 199.62141, "relative_strength": -19.465619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.17773, "energy": 67.939379, "activity_lines": [ 161.066667, 163.854545, 173.629095, 181.986666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 180.0, "volume": 117, "typical_volume": 140.6, "trend": 194.674666, "fair_value": 200.099038, "relative_strength": -14.58334, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.769035, "energy": 54.723752, "activity_lines": [ 167.533333, 165.836364, 173.611523, 180.896709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 180.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 140.6, "trend": 192.454999, "fair_value": 200.400321, "relative_strength": -13.972341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.329845, "energy": 36.272348, "activity_lines": [ 173.0, 168.072727, 173.646333, 179.949957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 208.509995, "volume": 2150, "typical_volume": 219.8, "trend": 191.185666, "fair_value": 200.906795, "relative_strength": -0.929166, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 19.201434, "energy": 42.753212, "activity_lines": [ 186.503332, 175.72909, 176.448761, 180.985763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 205.0, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 219.8, "trend": 189.799333, "fair_value": 201.483718, "relative_strength": -2.268256, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 50.771803, "energy": 62.146896, "activity_lines": [ 195.269332, 182.010726, 178.82638, 181.87701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }