{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd26be0a-ae2d-4242-bdaa-5734acdd8fee", "symbol": "RANI3", "name": "Irani Papel e Embalagem S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.582, "architecture_energy": 17.194, "architecture_maturity": 59.225, "architecture_confidence": 52.467, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.86, "rotation_up": 32.24, "upward_expansion": 21.14, "deceleration": 42.15, "rotation_down": 18.16, "downward_expansion": 52.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.1, 8.020909, 8.028269, 8.208447 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.26, "trend_reference": 8.42802, "distance_from_trend": -0.019936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.723124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.175955, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.04255, "excess_performance": 0.014498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013003, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061353, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04176, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140467, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.04255, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.448936, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3204200, "relative_activity": 1.196066, "balance": 2.448936, "dry_up": 0.911141, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032501, "annualized_volatility": 0.218706, "from_high_reference": -0.152297, "from_low_reference": 0.181266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.42802, "fair_value_reference": 7.723124, "structural_low": 7.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.003184, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014367, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.172868, "worst_return": -0.129796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.040365, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.073006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08401, "worst_return": -0.119898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.112513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.04998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.077301, "worst_return": -0.146025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 8.01, "volume": 1780300, "typical_volume": 3124390.0, "trend": 8.467648, "fair_value": 7.728537, "relative_strength": -10.728646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.034664, "energy": 36.6153, "activity_lines": [ 7.925333, 7.923636, 8.111577, 8.307771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.95, "volume": 2196800, "typical_volume": 2995545.0, "trend": 8.4592, "fair_value": 7.729775, "relative_strength": -9.11864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.025665, "energy": 35.255382, "activity_lines": [ 7.936667, 7.930364, 8.069686, 8.274374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.95, "volume": 2187600, "typical_volume": 2817905.0, "trend": 8.445617, "fair_value": 7.729471, "relative_strength": -9.090633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.761823, "energy": 30.76653, "activity_lines": [ 7.948, 7.933455, 8.035054, 8.241522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.11, "volume": 2175000, "typical_volume": 2675365.0, "trend": 8.437047, "fair_value": 7.726289, "relative_strength": -9.034534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.928832, "energy": 24.568079, "activity_lines": [ 8.009333, 7.963818, 8.022879, 8.21987 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.26, "volume": 3204200, "typical_volume": 2678950.0, "trend": 8.42802, "fair_value": 7.723124, "relative_strength": -4.175955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.582146, "energy": 17.193972, "activity_lines": [ 8.1, 8.020909, 8.028269, 8.208447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }