{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd28d85e-f706-4208-ace5-2ba287a34d7e", "symbol": "AN", "name": "AutoNation Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.948, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.119, "architecture_energy": 43.276, "architecture_maturity": 6.2, "architecture_confidence": 55.615, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.53, "rotation_up": 65.55, "upward_expansion": 57.02, "deceleration": 24.55, "rotation_down": 19.84, "downward_expansion": 17.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 208.502, 202.178, 198.534333, 197.801892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 209.23, "trend_reference": 198.792333, "distance_from_trend": 0.052505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 178.562436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.956232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034249, "excess_performance": -0.159874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004653, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089562, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034249, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.699347, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2380732, "relative_activity": 1.210042, "balance": 1.699347, "dry_up": 1.218941, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078085, "annualized_volatility": 0.273651, "from_high_reference": -0.112718, "from_low_reference": 0.184634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 198.792333, "fair_value_reference": 178.562436, "structural_low": 176.62, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.088605, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.057797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.026812, "worst_return": -0.113589, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.088459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.063998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.16109, "worst_return": 0.015828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.152995, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092393, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152995, "worst_return": 0.152995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.599246, "energy": 18.367406, "activity_lines": [ 191.238, 190.415636, 193.190476, 195.242796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 205.72, "volume": 1914696, "typical_volume": 1946837.15, "trend": 198.943333, "fair_value": 177.562564, "relative_strength": -7.515751, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.88334, "energy": 9.461174, "activity_lines": [ 196.203333, 193.098182, 194.33419, 195.672688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 208.18, "volume": 1579496, "typical_volume": 1914128.25, "trend": 198.833333, "fair_value": 177.885513, "relative_strength": -5.610017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.072332, "energy": 20.089581, "activity_lines": [ 201.042667, 196.232545, 195.661905, 196.268602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 212.4, "volume": 3718041, "typical_volume": 1971377.45, "trend": 199.030667, "fair_value": 178.247051, "relative_strength": -4.583482, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.609502, "energy": 34.188038, "activity_lines": [ 205.992667, 199.697273, 197.317952, 197.143871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.23, "volume": 2380732, "typical_volume": 1967479.15, "trend": 198.792333, "fair_value": 178.562436, "relative_strength": -8.956232, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.118708, "energy": 43.276281, "activity_lines": [ 208.502, 202.178, 198.534333, 197.801892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }