{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd2a531e-a0f0-4a86-b4f9-0004c0bbdba0", "symbol": "UC13", "name": "UBS Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.259, "architecture_energy": 57.168, "architecture_maturity": 81.941, "architecture_confidence": 67.435, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.92, "rotation_up": 48.78, "upward_expansion": 80.25, "deceleration": 71.46, "rotation_down": 29.34, "downward_expansion": 9.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 9098.2, 9081.509091, 8994.247619, 8815.672359 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9307.5, "trend_reference": 8605.33501, "distance_from_trend": 0.081596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7341.777134, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267745, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.683581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.134021, "excess_performance": 0.082786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081596, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031911, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267745, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025733, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016836, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.409943, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1170, "relative_activity": 0.084997, "balance": 8.409943, "dry_up": 0.093079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017899, "annualized_volatility": 0.123904, "from_high_reference": -0.151811, "from_low_reference": 0.218206 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8605.33501, "fair_value_reference": 7341.777134, "structural_low": 7783.964844, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.017544, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002724, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.375364, "worst_return": -0.259752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036123, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.024935, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.082971, "worst_return": -0.159287, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061091, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.008271, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.159259, "worst_return": -0.07744, "sufficient": true }, { 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"up", "direction": 52.363444, "energy": 54.556816, "activity_lines": [ 9048.333333, 9058.290909, 8918.866667, 8744.058652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8929.0, "volume": 850, "typical_volume": 14014.7, "trend": 8575.118506, "fair_value": 7318.260642, "relative_strength": -2.125732, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.064678, "energy": 42.63838, "activity_lines": [ 9006.933333, 9034.736364, 8940.488095, 8768.42194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9307.5, "volume": 1170, "typical_volume": 13765.2, "trend": 8605.33501, "fair_value": 7341.777134, "relative_strength": 1.683581, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.259105, "energy": 57.16771, "activity_lines": [ 9098.2, 9081.509091, 8994.247619, 8815.672359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }