{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dd30ff40-f655-4607-bfd0-b8df57822e08",
    "symbol": "XZMJ",
    "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Japan ESG UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 76.318,
    "architecture_energy": 43.609,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.284,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.194,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 26.07,
        "rotation_up": 42.47,
        "upward_expansion": 72.83,
        "deceleration": 91.43,
        "rotation_down": 28.92,
        "downward_expansion": 10.83
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        28.454667,
        28.443727,
        27.980643,
        27.390344
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 29.485001,
    "trend_reference": 26.711833,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.103818,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.192897,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.328578,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.822098,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.140178,
    "excess_performance": -0.030714,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.103818,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.051958,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.328578,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059499,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.008221,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.005735,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.140178,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.823847,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 75268,
      "relative_activity": 3.155005,
      "balance": 0.823847,
      "dry_up": 1.331638,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031085,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.216866,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001355,
      "from_low_reference": 0.303781
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.711833,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.192897,
      "structural_low": 23.795,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.024775,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.016124,
        "regime_survival": 0.416667,
        "best_return": 0.083142,
        "worst_return": -0.037786,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.028401,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.005786,
        "regime_survival": 0.285714,
        "best_return": 0.151891,
        "worst_return": -0.062257,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.067804,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020525,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.184606,
        "worst_return": -0.088573,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.107534,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003013,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.210408,
        "worst_return": -0.164755,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002511,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024286,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.040602,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.053501,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.003536,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.060703,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.043966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0082,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-02",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.060184,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.091916,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.029688,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
        "close": 17.34,
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        "typical_volume": 15156.9,
        "trend": 17.680267,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 23544.3,
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        "fair_value": 21.993019,
        "relative_strength": -4.082514,
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        "direction": 62.140842,
        "energy": 52.703053,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.9,
        "volume": 2796,
        "typical_volume": 23324.25,
        "trend": 26.456333,
        "fair_value": 22.053211,
        "relative_strength": -2.718061,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 49.600755,
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        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.92,
        "volume": 13932,
        "typical_volume": 22162.95,
        "trend": 26.577167,
        "fair_value": 22.117801,
        "relative_strength": -3.302765,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 43.443384,
        "energy": 29.630614,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.030667,
          28.212364,
          27.747381,
          27.202742
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 29.485001,
        "volume": 75268,
        "typical_volume": 23856.7,
        "trend": 26.711833,
        "fair_value": 22.192897,
        "relative_strength": -0.822098,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.318072,
        "energy": 43.609413,
        "activity_lines": [
          28.454667,
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          27.390344
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}