{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd37021f-0cb5-48ed-8407-3337be669981", "symbol": "SOM", "name": "SomnoMed Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.261, "architecture_energy": 91.544, "architecture_maturity": 72.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.673, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 10.15, "upward_expansion": 21.72, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 84.24, "downward_expansion": 99.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.444, 0.472545, 0.513333, 0.544796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.42, "trend_reference": 0.585583, "distance_from_trend": -0.282766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.534781, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.214631, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.271251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305785, "excess_performance": -0.369491, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.282766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136202, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.214631, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.255504, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305785, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258633, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167363, "relative_activity": 0.496632, "balance": 0.258633, "dry_up": 1.316846, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099359, "annualized_volatility": 0.464434, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.585583, "fair_value_reference": 0.534781, "structural_low": 0.42, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.053709, "positive_rate": 0.30303, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.032413, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.48, "worst_return": -0.407895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.141199, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.17265, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.553571, "worst_return": -0.397959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.252033, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.239441, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.114406, "worst_return": -0.449645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -81.595088, "energy": 82.762732, "activity_lines": [ 0.493333, 0.519, 0.549155, 0.576962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.45, "volume": 287559, "typical_volume": 309612.75, "trend": 0.60625, "fair_value": 0.540637, "relative_strength": -34.002606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.841504, "energy": 87.706467, "activity_lines": [ 0.473667, 0.503273, 0.537119, 0.566204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 1020074, "typical_volume": 339818.6, "trend": 0.595583, "fair_value": 0.537728, "relative_strength": -34.759241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.967991, "energy": 88.886981, "activity_lines": [ 0.461, 0.489727, 0.526155, 0.556124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.42, "volume": 167363, "typical_volume": 336996.05, "trend": 0.585583, "fair_value": 0.534781, "relative_strength": -40.271251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.260687, "energy": 91.544138, "activity_lines": [ 0.444, 0.472545, 0.513333, 0.544796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }