{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd377e5f-3ec0-4de9-bf90-1403f7f9f75a", "symbol": "002884", "name": "Guangdong Lingxiao Pump Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.78, "architecture_energy": 22.226, "architecture_maturity": 47.619, "architecture_confidence": 76.95, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.62, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 15.09, "deceleration": 45.27, "rotation_down": 23.88, "downward_expansion": 58.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.136667, 16.007818, 16.338566, 16.582437 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.110001, "trend_reference": 16.785492, "distance_from_trend": -0.040243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.952846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009851, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.449861, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039567, "excess_performance": -0.046967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013091, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009851, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064499, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039567, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.459695, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9898175, "relative_activity": 0.755215, "balance": 0.459695, "dry_up": 0.867878, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042343, "annualized_volatility": 0.158253, "from_high_reference": -0.117238, "from_low_reference": 0.073285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.785492, "fair_value_reference": 15.952846, "structural_low": 15.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.017327, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.001846, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.119889, "worst_return": -0.095757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038985, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.037961, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.14824, "worst_return": -0.08517, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005825, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104984, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.172726, "worst_return": -0.160716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.342785, "energy": 52.945119, "activity_lines": [ 15.873334, 15.985818, 16.525175, 16.714213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.09, "volume": 12765517, "typical_volume": 14463860.1, "trend": 16.830432, "fair_value": 15.920686, "relative_strength": -3.664324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.135931, "energy": 31.291179, "activity_lines": [ 15.99, 15.960727, 16.452484, 16.66481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.25, "volume": 10590939, "typical_volume": 14019380.6, "trend": 16.806353, "fair_value": 15.936724, "relative_strength": -0.978781, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.176928, "energy": 24.040662, "activity_lines": [ 16.124667, 15.991091, 16.399729, 16.627362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.110001, "volume": 9898175, "typical_volume": 13106439.45, "trend": 16.785492, "fair_value": 15.952846, "relative_strength": -6.449861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.779812, "energy": 22.226345, "activity_lines": [ 16.136667, 16.007818, 16.338566, 16.582437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }