{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "dd417d99-e7ff-4cd3-81f3-29ae51dcf6e6",
    "symbol": "GBLB",
    "name": "Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 29.269,
    "architecture_energy": 15.759,
    "architecture_maturity": 46.986,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.895,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.0,
        "rotation_up": 20.42,
        "upward_expansion": 51.38,
        "deceleration": 93.02,
        "rotation_down": 27.84,
        "downward_expansion": 17.38
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        78.263333,
        78.51,
        78.447526,
        77.772163
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 78.5,
    "trend_reference": 77.060474,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.01868,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 65.304779,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202056,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -13.994429,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.037242,
    "excess_performance": -0.137005,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.01868,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040238,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.202056,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006048,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139944,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.039668,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037242,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.0,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.0,
      "dry_up": 1.169429,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.021521,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.158095,
      "from_high_reference": -0.043266,
      "from_low_reference": 0.168163
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 77.060474,
      "fair_value_reference": 65.304779,
      "structural_low": 69.074002,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.045476,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.007955,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.080993,
        "worst_return": -0.057513,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.01294,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033419,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.150619,
        "worst_return": -0.029688,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.004243,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034206,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.188052,
        "worst_return": -0.047078,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.118161,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.073129,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.05061,
        "worst_return": -0.185712,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.020187,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-11-01",
        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007463,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-11-15",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036126,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033033,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.041667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.043605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-10-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.092672,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-07",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02573,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.02751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.050398,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.055108,
        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.043237,
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.013557,
        "active": true
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.033883,
        "energy": 27.410373,
        "activity_lines": [
          75.350335,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 76.337547,
        "volume": 300,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 73.366527,
        "fair_value": 63.826956,
        "relative_strength": -10.027654,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.091135,
        "energy": 32.327293,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 77.25,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 73.531278,
        "fair_value": 63.909067,
        "relative_strength": -8.327551,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.736582,
        "energy": 35.916591,
        "activity_lines": [
          76.160587,
          75.459716,
          75.506411,
          74.752334
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 80.949997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 73.777188,
        "fair_value": 64.013605,
        "relative_strength": -5.702002,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 77.905467,
        "energy": 64.336068,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 80.349998,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 74.079638,
        "fair_value": 64.139387,
        "relative_strength": -8.660639,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.681292,
        "energy": 72.110442,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 80.900002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 74.530071,
        "fair_value": 64.267295,
        "relative_strength": -6.805922,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.406024,
        "energy": 77.824337,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 80.400002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 74.906043,
        "fair_value": 64.387367,
        "relative_strength": -9.639593,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.034304,
        "energy": 78.443464,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 79.400002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 75.281484,
        "fair_value": 64.509321,
        "relative_strength": -14.072487,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.247004,
        "energy": 71.118481,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 79.050003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 75.599958,
        "fair_value": 64.631507,
        "relative_strength": -12.467356,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.63031,
        "energy": 51.364527,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.746669,
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          77.006805
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 79.300003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 75.91427,
        "fair_value": 64.761866,
        "relative_strength": -13.922776,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.569091,
        "energy": 39.817729,
        "activity_lines": [
          79.506669,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 77.449997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 76.182536,
        "fair_value": 64.877457,
        "relative_strength": -14.471891,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.173974,
        "energy": 24.013466,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.720001,
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          78.019465,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 77.449997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 50.0,
        "trend": 76.430494,
        "fair_value": 64.988742,
        "relative_strength": -12.462574,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 33.402274,
        "energy": 23.844052,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.163333,
          78.936364,
          78.053611,
          77.426368
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 78.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 48.25,
        "trend": 76.691585,
        "fair_value": 65.094481,
        "relative_strength": -12.115374,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.461538,
        "energy": 21.934627,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.153333,
          78.8,
          78.198973,
          77.559885
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 78.400002,
        "volume": 254,
        "typical_volume": 60.95,
        "trend": 76.9181,
        "fair_value": 65.201517,
        "relative_strength": -11.8786,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.031979,
        "energy": 20.631653,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.17,
          78.622728,
          78.328531,
          77.670105
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 78.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 54.3,
        "trend": 77.060474,
        "fair_value": 65.304779,
        "relative_strength": -13.994429,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.269486,
        "energy": 15.759387,
        "activity_lines": [
          78.263333,
          78.51,
          78.447526,
          77.772163
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}