{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd44c08f-c508-4be3-a136-2cb55bb016a0", "symbol": "3545", "name": "FocalTech Systems Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.651, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.77, "architecture_energy": 28.601, "architecture_maturity": 7.737, "architecture_confidence": 63.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.45, "rotation_up": 18.61, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 53.37, "downward_expansion": 46.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.437203, 50.337895, 52.217759, 51.741934 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 50.099998, "trend_reference": 51.212151, "distance_from_trend": -0.021717, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 70.783019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292203, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.109602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003358, "excess_performance": -0.34909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006262, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292203, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128551, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2983691, "relative_activity": 0.36008, "balance": 0.424641, "dry_up": 0.52952, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100285, "annualized_volatility": 0.483447, "from_high_reference": -0.285717, "from_low_reference": 0.236127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.212151, "fair_value_reference": 70.783019, "structural_low": 40.52983, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043776, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.003142, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.125894, "worst_return": -0.168142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090717, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0564, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06156, "worst_return": -0.172775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.117994, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.149272, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365253, "worst_return": -0.153141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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53.110888, 53.271522, 52.259954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.153767, "volume": 6622090, "typical_volume": 9156644.45, "trend": 51.377132, "fair_value": 71.124335, "relative_strength": -36.046196, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.505732, "energy": 23.056857, "activity_lines": [ 49.786764, 51.925937, 52.936351, 52.047447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.400002, "volume": 4502400, "typical_volume": 9084165.45, "trend": 51.381506, "fair_value": 71.003489, "relative_strength": -33.6359, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.770183, "energy": 27.727267, "activity_lines": [ 49.450123, 51.37565, 52.78817, 51.984406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 48.799999, "volume": 3442640, "typical_volume": 9007310.5, "trend": 51.276802, "fair_value": 70.87846, "relative_strength": -36.87715, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.009886, "energy": 37.095615, "activity_lines": [ 48.964894, 50.682312, 52.451382, 51.817857 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 50.099998, "volume": 2983691, "typical_volume": 8286190.3, "trend": 51.212151, "fair_value": 70.783019, "relative_strength": -33.109602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.77016, "energy": 28.600928, "activity_lines": [ 49.437203, 50.337895, 52.217759, 51.741934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }