{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd4ac860-19ed-42ec-b595-a36b324fa205", "symbol": "603508", "name": "Henan Thinker Automatic Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.895, "architecture_energy": 25.217, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.756, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.65, "rotation_up": 27.26, "upward_expansion": 15.92, "deceleration": 46.51, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 61.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.488667, 22.185818, 22.742904, 23.375641 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 22.780001, "trend_reference": 24.259611, "distance_from_trend": -0.060991, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.87376, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091322, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.475972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116373, "excess_performance": -0.073169, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060991, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074415, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091322, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14476, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016568, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22063039, "relative_activity": 1.249008, "balance": 0.385499, "dry_up": 1.265401, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052557, "annualized_volatility": 0.274951, "from_high_reference": -0.342531, "from_low_reference": 0.101547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.259611, "fair_value_reference": 20.87376, "structural_low": 20.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.016977, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.017289, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.449708, "worst_return": -0.129045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018181, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009244, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.521895, "worst_return": -0.096139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.396071, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.21253, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.587698, "worst_return": -0.131975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"down", "direction": -60.799284, "energy": 51.865092, "activity_lines": [ 21.856667, 22.013975, 23.060162, 23.769599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.639999, "volume": 26167181, "typical_volume": 17290399.65, "trend": 24.544901, "fair_value": 20.761195, "relative_strength": -16.837636, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.271955, "energy": 46.681487, "activity_lines": [ 21.832667, 21.845636, 22.85316, 23.570059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.16, "volume": 20288388, "typical_volume": 17578911.75, "trend": 24.408589, "fair_value": 20.817693, "relative_strength": -11.052676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.552958, "energy": 34.277485, "activity_lines": [ 22.29, 22.038909, 22.810169, 23.480711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.780001, "volume": 22063039, "typical_volume": 17664456.75, "trend": 24.259611, "fair_value": 20.87376, "relative_strength": -14.475972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.895164, "energy": 25.21728, "activity_lines": [ 22.488667, 22.185818, 22.742904, 23.375641 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }