{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd4df51a-93c3-4a9c-bc2a-ab3991cb0160", "symbol": "SBIO", "name": "Invesco NASDAQ Biotech UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.287, "architecture_energy": 62.173, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.362, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.15, "rotation_up": 55.63, "upward_expansion": 81.8, "deceleration": 70.84, "rotation_down": 24.78, "downward_expansion": 10.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 59.642667, 59.279455, 57.034286, 55.726108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.540001, "trend_reference": 54.293667, "distance_from_trend": 0.115047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.730321, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353444, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.818357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157995, "excess_performance": -0.012896, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353444, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.144742, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018184, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028527, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157995, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.387318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15558, "relative_activity": 0.599935, "balance": 1.387318, "dry_up": 0.966161, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03268, "annualized_volatility": 0.17587, "from_high_reference": -0.033216, "from_low_reference": 0.515963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.293667, "fair_value_reference": 44.730321, "structural_low": 49.779999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.009703, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.006807, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.154866, "worst_return": -0.062861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.016987, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.067501, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.218042, "worst_return": -0.054272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034988, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097533, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.202374, "worst_return": -0.084347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 68.34294, "energy": 88.54871, "activity_lines": [ 60.024001, 57.873273, 55.62362, 54.622302 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.709999, "volume": 25467, "typical_volume": 24496.05, "trend": 53.768667, "fair_value": 44.461603, "relative_strength": 4.653246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.835529, "energy": 87.534501, "activity_lines": [ 60.164667, 58.506728, 56.150381, 55.023678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.139999, "volume": 37631, "typical_volume": 25484.05, "trend": 54.023667, "fair_value": 44.589327, "relative_strength": 0.976453, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.911629, "energy": 63.505708, "activity_lines": [ 59.459333, 58.721091, 56.49281, 55.305699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.540001, "volume": 15558, "typical_volume": 25932.8, "trend": 54.293667, "fair_value": 44.730321, "relative_strength": 1.818357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.287139, "energy": 62.173055, "activity_lines": [ 59.642667, 59.279455, 57.034286, 55.726108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }