{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd4e2989-2f25-4502-9ef5-ea68198045a3", "symbol": "SBRT", "name": "WisdomTree Brent Crude Oil 1x Daily Short", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.054, "architecture_energy": 41.062, "architecture_maturity": 79.436, "architecture_confidence": 59.69, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.51, "rotation_up": 9.75, "upward_expansion": 12.3, "deceleration": 63.15, "rotation_down": 66.76, "downward_expansion": 68.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.718, 8.054982, 7.891486, 8.148017 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.785, "trend_reference": 8.9405, "distance_from_trend": -0.129243, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.954058, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.39903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.652765, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.35947, "excess_performance": -0.530362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.39903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076844, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396528, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35947, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.392038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 457756, "relative_activity": 0.987477, "balance": 1.392038, "dry_up": 1.382311, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076014, "annualized_volatility": 0.496898, "from_high_reference": -0.45681, "from_low_reference": 0.188731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.9405, "fair_value_reference": 12.954058, "structural_low": 6.549, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.002006, "positive_rate": 0.514286, "directional_follow_through": 0.485714, "median_excess_return": -0.04002, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.146456, "worst_return": -0.332962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006584, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.101782, "worst_return": -0.40417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.07416, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.096095, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.073597, "worst_return": -0.219976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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8.693602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.722, "volume": 392413, "typical_volume": 430573.05, "trend": 9.770833, "fair_value": 13.120224, "relative_strength": -34.621798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.831105, "energy": 31.181033, "activity_lines": [ 8.830133, 8.315527, 8.01, 8.614697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.783, "volume": 459857, "typical_volume": 445769.05, "trend": 9.558333, "fair_value": 13.076038, "relative_strength": -40.061304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.029074, "energy": 25.952429, "activity_lines": [ 8.5416, 8.293673, 7.972957, 8.486449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.475, "volume": 832552, "typical_volume": 482434.05, "trend": 9.349967, "fair_value": 13.032981, "relative_strength": -41.562991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.247438, "energy": 23.957108, "activity_lines": [ 8.150267, 8.203709, 7.923681, 8.352041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.533, "volume": 812976, "typical_volume": 485954.15, "trend": 9.1304, "fair_value": 12.992603, "relative_strength": -40.704858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.355563, "energy": 39.256106, "activity_lines": [ 7.836333, 8.111782, 7.893438, 8.234817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.785, "volume": 457756, "typical_volume": 463561.0, "trend": 8.9405, "fair_value": 12.954058, "relative_strength": -39.652765, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.053944, "energy": 41.061692, "activity_lines": [ 7.718, 8.054982, 7.891486, 8.148017 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }