{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd594805-0949-4c90-a9c5-e2af920fe69b", "symbol": "XRXB34", "name": "Xerox Holdings Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.132, "architecture_energy": 36.481, "architecture_maturity": 57.82, "architecture_confidence": 95.661, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.4, "rotation_up": 34.71, "upward_expansion": 66.71, "deceleration": 95.04, "rotation_down": 28.0, "downward_expansion": 9.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.155334, 15.129493, 14.589982, 13.308058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.780001, "trend_reference": 12.145728, "distance_from_trend": 0.381556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.110802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.591835, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.25709, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.408957, "excess_performance": 0.466005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.381556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.591835, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103463, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.102571, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.464939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.408957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.695678, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3160, "relative_activity": 0.428797, "balance": 5.695678, "dry_up": 0.41957, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123254, "annualized_volatility": 0.933374, "from_high_reference": -0.323041, "from_low_reference": 1.706452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.145728, "fair_value_reference": 41.110802, "structural_low": 6.2, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005919, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.017174, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.211799, "worst_return": -0.18902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.12514, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.14458, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.256005, "worst_return": -0.375825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.173285, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.166171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.297502, "worst_return": -0.452863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035664, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.253432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168999, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.375705, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", 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"stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.596308, "energy": 25.4294, "activity_lines": [ 14.581422, 15.291598, 13.771721, 12.695229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.99, "volume": 1171, "typical_volume": 7981.2, "trend": 11.993053, "fair_value": 41.685753, "relative_strength": -11.693315, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.112385, "energy": 26.585852, "activity_lines": [ 14.284321, 15.032533, 13.957961, 12.825504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.73, "volume": 7245, "typical_volume": 7895.65, "trend": 12.037364, "fair_value": 41.391707, "relative_strength": -7.536417, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.816899, "energy": 21.591229, "activity_lines": [ 14.326667, 14.897831, 14.190944, 13.002081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.780001, "volume": 3160, "typical_volume": 7369.45, "trend": 12.145728, "fair_value": 41.110802, "relative_strength": 10.25709, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.131574, "energy": 36.481113, "activity_lines": [ 15.155334, 15.129493, 14.589982, 13.308058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }