{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd5be4c4-48f3-4358-a70d-e2ae7ea7bb76", "symbol": "CNAV", "name": "MOHR COMPANY NAV ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.953, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.671, "architecture_energy": 18.743, "architecture_maturity": 64.616, "architecture_confidence": 91.747, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.33, "rotation_up": 15.78, "upward_expansion": 45.39, "deceleration": 87.97, "rotation_down": 41.1, "downward_expansion": 28.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.23002, 40.857291, 40.86348, 39.259568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 38.84, "trend_reference": 37.16051, "distance_from_trend": 0.045196, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.47329, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.618812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172592, "excess_performance": 0.046967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045196, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109391, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274559, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016188, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163609, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172592, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39706, "relative_activity": 1.215913, "balance": 0.924182, "dry_up": 1.151031, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095998, "annualized_volatility": 0.313225, "from_high_reference": -0.193689, "from_low_reference": 0.435329 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.16051, "fair_value_reference": 30.47329, "structural_low": 29.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019602, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013174, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 25.1501, "volume": 1198513, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.530513, "energy": 31.413865, "activity_lines": [ 42.336533, 42.812391, 40.820879, 38.833245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.3585, "volume": 41624, "typical_volume": 30193.65, "trend": 36.691753, "fair_value": 30.301123, "relative_strength": 8.272225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.765823, "energy": 23.399002, "activity_lines": [ 40.998193, 42.222724, 40.917446, 39.022225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.4624, "volume": 21527, "typical_volume": 30919.7, "trend": 36.931843, "fair_value": 30.386136, "relative_strength": 4.39273, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.860971, "energy": 21.407878, "activity_lines": [ 39.852253, 41.483247, 40.889557, 39.136461 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.84, "volume": 39706, "typical_volume": 32655.3, "trend": 37.16051, "fair_value": 30.47329, "relative_strength": 1.618812, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.670991, "energy": 18.743366, "activity_lines": [ 39.23002, 40.857291, 40.86348, 39.259568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }