{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd5cdb29-f3d8-4d6a-bd74-2c1cbcb82e15", "symbol": "9410", "name": "Albilad CSOP MSCI Hong Kong China - Class Sarency Series", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.773, "architecture_energy": 29.835, "architecture_maturity": 82.613, "architecture_confidence": 63.115, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.29, "rotation_up": 47.39, "upward_expansion": 24.13, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 17.98, "downward_expansion": 55.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.03, 10.755818, 10.834905, 11.045161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.13, "trend_reference": 11.359, "distance_from_trend": -0.02016, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.112391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001585, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.092335, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103143, "excess_performance": -0.054867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02016, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001585, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040923, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.219389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 42397, "relative_activity": 0.917493, "balance": 1.219389, "dry_up": 0.978936, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031792, "annualized_volatility": 0.187756, "from_high_reference": -0.161266, "from_low_reference": 0.123108 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.359, "fair_value_reference": 11.112391, "structural_low": 9.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02554, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.046695, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.066092, "worst_return": -0.109361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.026247, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 9.81, "volume": 394867, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 9.93, "volume": 5775821, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"trend": 11.484, "fair_value": 11.122874, "relative_strength": -12.539466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.728733, "energy": 89.431233, "activity_lines": [ 10.191333, 10.516909, 10.925619, 11.202065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.44, "volume": 17777, "typical_volume": 55565.9, "trend": 11.432, "fair_value": 11.115114, "relative_strength": -10.100435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.999961, "energy": 82.340887, "activity_lines": [ 10.242667, 10.453273, 10.846, 11.13471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.96, "volume": 49548, "typical_volume": 56807.25, "trend": 11.407333, "fair_value": 11.113371, "relative_strength": -4.885756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.707976, "energy": 58.010143, "activity_lines": [ 10.491333, 10.501818, 10.82581, 11.104258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.04, "volume": 67584, "typical_volume": 52696.25, "trend": 11.389333, "fair_value": 11.112556, "relative_strength": -4.768227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.395054, "energy": 30.20664, "activity_lines": [ 10.714667, 10.572545, 10.820048, 11.080559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.08, "volume": 21416, "typical_volume": 47410.75, "trend": 11.369333, "fair_value": 11.112198, "relative_strength": -2.403322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.763569, "energy": 32.930512, "activity_lines": [ 10.9, 10.657636, 10.824048, 11.060602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.13, "volume": 42397, "typical_volume": 46209.6, "trend": 11.359, "fair_value": 11.112391, "relative_strength": -4.092335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.772635, "energy": 29.834674, "activity_lines": [ 11.03, 10.755818, 10.834905, 11.045161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }