{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd5dae21-789d-41cc-8ff4-d3106f417753", "symbol": "301189", "name": "Shenzhen Aoni Electronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.346, "architecture_energy": 57.313, "architecture_maturity": 9.852, "architecture_confidence": 63.266, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.59, "rotation_up": 14.33, "upward_expansion": 27.12, "deceleration": 49.57, "rotation_down": 71.22, "downward_expansion": 56.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.726667, 49.323948, 55.443075, 54.465437 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 48.380001, "trend_reference": 52.198476, "distance_from_trend": -0.073153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.550476, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.533416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.370214, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130902, "excess_performance": 0.123503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.533416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.791839, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053702, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.469336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130902, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.057914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22866784, "relative_activity": 0.699038, "balance": 1.057914, "dry_up": 0.822479, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.195765, "annualized_volatility": 0.835092, "from_high_reference": -0.375915, "from_low_reference": 0.74657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.198476, "fair_value_reference": 31.550476, "structural_low": 31.442858, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066237, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.075282, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131336, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042703, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.223208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.258026, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"trend": 51.882142, "fair_value": 31.312079, "relative_strength": -1.793763, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.079944, "energy": 37.922753, "activity_lines": [ 51.554001, 57.817065, 59.018516, 56.047981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.209999, "volume": 29210470, "typical_volume": 31661881.85, "trend": 51.991809, "fair_value": 31.380284, "relative_strength": -3.702571, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.071893, "energy": 50.620551, "activity_lines": [ 47.340667, 54.190156, 57.671686, 55.423972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.790001, "volume": 25808829, "typical_volume": 32534327.3, "trend": 52.035476, "fair_value": 31.436758, "relative_strength": -5.895391, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.179922, "energy": 60.540802, "activity_lines": [ 44.308, 50.82813, 56.193238, 54.701274 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.380001, "volume": 22866784, "typical_volume": 32711779.25, "trend": 52.198476, "fair_value": 31.550476, "relative_strength": 5.370214, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.346092, "energy": 57.31302, "activity_lines": [ 44.726667, 49.323948, 55.443075, 54.465437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }