{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd64f760-6bd3-4356-88db-8f10498376f5", "symbol": "XGGB", "name": "Gerdau S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.969, "architecture_energy": 90.94, "architecture_maturity": 19.78, "architecture_confidence": 83.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.36, "rotation_up": 82.26, "upward_expansion": 97.26, "deceleration": 41.92, "rotation_down": 11.86, "downward_expansion": 23.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.214667, 4.060364, 3.968807, 3.808822 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.34, "trend_reference": 3.624978, "distance_from_trend": 0.197249, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.501221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.735152, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 18.075957, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.272221, "excess_performance": 0.14779, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.197249, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109786, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.735152, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046241, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.18076, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.272221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 195.460674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8783, "relative_activity": 2.516763, "balance": 195.460674, "dry_up": 1.515918, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043078, "annualized_volatility": 0.330003, "from_high_reference": -0.0181, "from_low_reference": 1.027539 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.624978, "fair_value_reference": 2.501221, "structural_low": 2.888696, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.037344, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.001808, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.749198, "worst_return": -0.267857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.103024, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.061018, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.974307, "worst_return": -0.10559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.370752, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.249207, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.887714, "worst_return": -0.202336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"up", "direction": 28.45992, "energy": 26.118887, "activity_lines": [ 3.76, 3.869028, 3.727708, 3.601951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.9, "volume": 5900, "typical_volume": 5240.15, "trend": 3.468434, "fair_value": 2.455054, "relative_strength": 13.499003, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.183516, "energy": 30.078218, "activity_lines": [ 3.78, 3.869075, 3.760208, 3.632041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.1, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 5072.75, "trend": 3.504367, "fair_value": 2.466026, "relative_strength": 19.60454, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.294544, "energy": 32.628746, "activity_lines": [ 3.872, 3.899273, 3.809164, 3.672787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.18, "volume": 2778, "typical_volume": 2866.65, "trend": 3.542966, "fair_value": 2.47751, "relative_strength": 18.846735, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.397152, "energy": 50.53349, "activity_lines": [ 3.986667, 3.941818, 3.861665, 3.716377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.22, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 3050.65, "trend": 3.584135, "fair_value": 2.488351, "relative_strength": 17.958997, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.680769, "energy": 69.157187, "activity_lines": [ 4.097333, 3.990909, 3.912373, 3.760056 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.34, "volume": 8783, "typical_volume": 3489.8, "trend": 3.624978, "fair_value": 2.501221, "relative_strength": 18.075957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.969351, "energy": 90.939538, "activity_lines": [ 4.214667, 4.060364, 3.968807, 3.808822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }