{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd69e092-ce8b-47f4-bd91-04a3380cc142", "symbol": "FMI", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi ITALY MIB ESG UCITS ETF DR - EUR C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.821, "architecture_energy": 57.647, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.871, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 48.16, "upward_expansion": 76.59, "deceleration": 71.43, "rotation_down": 29.43, "downward_expansion": 14.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.763999, 129.64509, 126.516095, 122.486537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 132.779999, "trend_reference": 117.714, "distance_from_trend": 0.127988, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 89.46649, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.484131, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.285934, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.20973, "excess_performance": 0.038839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127988, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.484131, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056107, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022859, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008482, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.20973, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.485646, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10336, "relative_activity": 0.838665, "balance": 1.485646, "dry_up": 1.121296, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029615, "annualized_volatility": 0.203956, "from_high_reference": -0.005244, "from_low_reference": 0.349665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.714, "fair_value_reference": 89.46649, "structural_low": 98.379997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.015591, "positive_rate": 0.644444, "directional_follow_through": 0.644444, "median_excess_return": 0.001132, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.157427, "worst_return": -0.154896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.042939, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": 0.007269, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.129605, "worst_return": -0.089978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.134467, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.024075, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.159855, "worst_return": -0.192918, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 65.433459, "energy": 64.309089, "activity_lines": [ 129.699998, 128.461089, 123.686666, 119.912085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 127.940002, "volume": 9490, "typical_volume": 11847.6, "trend": 116.337333, "fair_value": 88.597131, "relative_strength": 2.321358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.774287, "energy": 60.194267, "activity_lines": [ 128.977332, 128.694545, 124.578761, 120.704946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 128.139999, "volume": 21503, "typical_volume": 12284.7, "trend": 116.968, "fair_value": 89.013862, "relative_strength": 1.706266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.531063, "energy": 47.915517, "activity_lines": [ 128.601332, 128.80109, 125.381142, 121.466408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 132.779999, "volume": 10336, "typical_volume": 12324.35, "trend": 117.714, "fair_value": 89.46649, "relative_strength": 2.285934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.820501, "energy": 57.647427, "activity_lines": [ 129.763999, 129.64509, 126.516095, 122.486537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }