{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd6a89bb-9d91-4745-8b15-d13b5c4b7d2e", "symbol": "EEM", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI EMG MKTS ETF USD DIS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.7, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.121, "architecture_energy": 15.345, "architecture_maturity": 30.518, "architecture_confidence": 86.545, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.38, "rotation_up": 21.3, "upward_expansion": 47.18, "deceleration": 84.58, "rotation_down": 35.91, "downward_expansion": 27.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.535333, 65.331953, 65.456463, 64.164264 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 65.64, "trend_reference": 62.529186, "distance_from_trend": 0.04975, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.53549, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.410536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.620955, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098221, "excess_performance": -0.027404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04975, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067293, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.410536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00621, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120548, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.689613, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 111338101, "relative_activity": 0.787464, "balance": 1.689613, "dry_up": 0.861913, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058183, "annualized_volatility": 0.279278, "from_high_reference": -0.082856, "from_low_reference": 0.359345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.529186, "fair_value_reference": 46.53549, "structural_low": 54.162594, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01191, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.013686, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108921, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027887, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.021685, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.111395, "worst_return": -0.05098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045921, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.03514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155387, "worst_return": -0.07325, "sufficient": false }, { 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65.422022, 65.284316, 63.944672 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.64, "volume": 111338101, "typical_volume": 141388264.5, "trend": 62.529186, "fair_value": 46.53549, "relative_strength": 0.620955, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.120859, "energy": 15.344835, "activity_lines": [ 64.535333, 65.331953, 65.456463, 64.164264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }