{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd7d8dbe-f39a-45fd-9b55-1e4aae0436ed", "symbol": "WIN", "name": "WIN Metals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.794, "architecture_energy": 49.612, "architecture_maturity": 78.734, "architecture_confidence": 91.303, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 8.04, "deceleration": 57.84, "rotation_down": 47.17, "downward_expansion": 79.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.018767, 0.018927, 0.020343, 0.021941 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0205, "trend_reference": 0.0247, "distance_from_trend": -0.17004, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.048202, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.574705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.375699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.359375, "excess_performance": -0.423081, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17004, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.574705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046984, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.323757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.631658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4794512, "relative_activity": 1.417727, "balance": 0.631658, "dry_up": 0.778425, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105066, "annualized_volatility": 0.596358, "from_high_reference": -0.698529, "from_low_reference": 0.205882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0247, "fair_value_reference": 0.048202, "structural_low": 0.017, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.064283, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.73913, "worst_return": -0.609524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.210927, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.141847, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.1, "worst_return": -0.783784, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -40.984776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.915219, "energy": 69.653183, "activity_lines": [ 0.0182, 0.019018, 0.020886, 0.022745 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1505440, "typical_volume": 3461511.25, "trend": 0.025217, "fair_value": 0.049577, "relative_strength": -38.827976, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.935078, "energy": 65.975176, "activity_lines": [ 0.018067, 0.018709, 0.020476, 0.022245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0205, "volume": 4794512, "typical_volume": 3381830.15, "trend": 0.0247, "fair_value": 0.048202, "relative_strength": -32.375699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.793733, "energy": 49.61176, "activity_lines": [ 0.018767, 0.018927, 0.020343, 0.021941 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }