{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd8e6145-6993-48ba-8ee8-fc2a51e8d681", "symbol": "GCNS", "name": "iShares ESG Conservative Balanced ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.565, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.845, "architecture_energy": 49.116, "architecture_maturity": 60.306, "architecture_confidence": 66.193, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.71, "rotation_up": 43.76, "upward_expansion": 70.42, "deceleration": 85.39, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 20.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 51.338, 51.394564, 50.910495, 50.343746 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.77, "trend_reference": 49.715712, "distance_from_trend": 0.041321, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.279247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169171, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.465915, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.074585, "excess_performance": -0.045837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041321, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017385, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169171, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018194, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064659, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018244, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.074585, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.676692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5500, "relative_activity": 1.877133, "balance": 1.676692, "dry_up": 0.998294, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011156, "annualized_volatility": 0.085429, "from_high_reference": -0.006786, "from_low_reference": 0.10291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.715712, "fair_value_reference": 44.279247, "structural_low": 47.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008026, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.006623, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.027887, "worst_return": -0.03555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.012234, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.006307, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.047772, "worst_return": -0.024625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050973, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099287, "worst_return": 0.027257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"direction": 90.72835, "energy": 91.90456, "activity_lines": [ 51.124053, 50.539742, 49.744303, 49.422502 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 51.5, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 2480.0, "trend": 49.209902, "fair_value": 43.720011, "relative_strength": -5.068529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.778091, "energy": 85.80851, "activity_lines": [ 51.34183, 50.785268, 49.958533, 49.575537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 51.73, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 2495.0, "trend": 49.293822, "fair_value": 43.817767, "relative_strength": -5.080568, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.836233, "energy": 87.167329, "activity_lines": [ 51.552071, 51.042794, 50.178842, 49.738124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 51.68, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 2680.0, "trend": 49.381432, "fair_value": 43.911794, "relative_strength": -5.027669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.87393, "energy": 88.048037, "activity_lines": [ 51.665969, 51.244764, 50.380643, 49.892071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.189999, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 2685.0, "trend": 49.464425, "fair_value": 44.00268, "relative_strength": -5.526393, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.861072, "energy": 81.281133, "activity_lines": [ 51.532246, 51.30992, 50.524164, 50.008753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.959999, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 2715.0, "trend": 49.525691, "fair_value": 44.091605, "relative_strength": -5.933632, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.619017, "energy": 55.979656, "activity_lines": [ 51.303999, 51.304014, 50.637494, 50.105241 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.07, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 2705.0, "trend": 49.617491, "fair_value": 44.182634, "relative_strength": -5.025027, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.956422, "energy": 46.926478, "activity_lines": [ 51.19, 51.293226, 50.748095, 50.204874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.77, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 2930.0, "trend": 49.715712, "fair_value": 44.279247, "relative_strength": -6.465915, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.845251, "energy": 49.115885, "activity_lines": [ 51.338, 51.394564, 50.910495, 50.343746 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }