{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd8e71a6-3738-4564-8025-d8a278425186", "symbol": "POCL", "name": "Pondy Oxides And Chemicals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 50.208, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 2.595, "architecture_energy": 8.873, "architecture_maturity": 16.792, "architecture_confidence": 60.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 71.91, "rotation_up": 22.57, "upward_expansion": 49.05, "deceleration": 78.9, "rotation_down": 30.58, "downward_expansion": 24.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 517.300008, 529.191275, 533.371808, 519.329116 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 481.700012, "trend_reference": 505.971331, "distance_from_trend": -0.04797, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 325.876952, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.478165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.074685, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002205, "excess_performance": 0.045915, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04797, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.478165, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.513337, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050747, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324547, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.087656, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4957571, "relative_activity": 1.300139, "balance": 1.087656, "dry_up": 0.738424, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13147, "annualized_volatility": 0.412894, "from_high_reference": -0.256177, "from_low_reference": 0.2282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 505.971331, "fair_value_reference": 325.876952, "structural_low": 392.200012, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.086, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.05496, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.52039, "worst_return": -0.038591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.506878, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.492079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.844673, "worst_return": 0.155873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.613607, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.444853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.826541, "worst_return": 0.105285, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 547.200012, "volume": 1967427, "typical_volume": 3612626.45, "trend": 513.365329, "fair_value": 317.792698, "relative_strength": 9.815019, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.67499, "energy": 32.838636, "activity_lines": [ 554.10133, 545.279997, 534.428948, 519.239738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 526.200012, "volume": 2442856, "typical_volume": 3657106.15, "trend": 511.551997, "fair_value": 320.636267, "relative_strength": 7.663415, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.25875, "energy": 26.565208, "activity_lines": [ 546.202669, 541.054545, 535.937711, 520.067782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 527.0, "volume": 1894912, "typical_volume": 3653172.95, "trend": 508.59733, "fair_value": 323.383945, "relative_strength": 4.847157, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.696358, "energy": 19.857097, "activity_lines": [ 539.304004, 538.642182, 537.063426, 521.064427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 481.700012, "volume": 4957571, "typical_volume": 3813107.6, "trend": 505.971331, "fair_value": 325.876952, "relative_strength": -5.074685, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.595354, "energy": 8.873188, "activity_lines": [ 517.300008, 529.191275, 533.371808, 519.329116 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }