{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd95e7b1-ec26-48d2-8cf0-a4090418d0cc", "symbol": "HODLX", "name": "21Shares Crypto Basket 10 Core ETP", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.248, "architecture_energy": 43.181, "architecture_maturity": 73.273, "architecture_confidence": 61.646, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.05, "rotation_up": 27.05, "upward_expansion": 18.95, "deceleration": 66.57, "rotation_down": 37.0, "downward_expansion": 64.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.3132, 15.203709, 15.940457, 16.361179 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.46, "trend_reference": 17.13, "distance_from_trend": -0.09749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.499737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207169, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.391037, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056281, "excess_performance": -0.139165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09749, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207169, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.34391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103647, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056281, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048303, "annualized_volatility": 0.379577, "from_high_reference": -0.515892, "from_low_reference": 0.06342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.13, "fair_value_reference": 19.499737, "structural_low": 14.538, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.070144, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.058588, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.436819, "worst_return": -0.308594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.194476, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.169767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.890651, "worst_return": -0.222992, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.511636, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.413516, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.427383, "worst_return": -0.307264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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15.619733, 16.699382, 17.084791, 17.67997 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 14.546, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 18.536367, "fair_value": 19.269885, "relative_strength": -41.979688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.884818, "energy": 93.342436, "activity_lines": [ 15.075867, 16.1828, 16.842171, 17.404239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.974, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 18.285833, "fair_value": 19.306654, "relative_strength": -40.64947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.95458, "energy": 87.777042, "activity_lines": [ 14.927067, 15.8184, 16.649057, 17.174409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.34, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 18.044833, "fair_value": 19.343558, "relative_strength": -37.547022, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.048193, "energy": 82.256993, "activity_lines": [ 15.0696, 15.586218, 16.497838, 16.984355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.162, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2.0, "trend": 17.813733, "fair_value": 19.381, "relative_strength": -37.801159, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.259791, "energy": 64.085609, "activity_lines": [ 15.099333, 15.371455, 16.334152, 16.798366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.498, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 17.604167, "fair_value": 19.42159, "relative_strength": -35.386552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.295461, "energy": 54.195065, "activity_lines": [ 15.243467, 15.282691, 16.206467, 16.648963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.06, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 17.3765, "fair_value": 19.459513, "relative_strength": -36.241113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.287256, "energy": 47.606491, "activity_lines": [ 15.2288, 15.177091, 16.048352, 16.484824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.46, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 17.13, "fair_value": 19.499737, "relative_strength": -34.391037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.248071, "energy": 43.180813, "activity_lines": [ 15.3132, 15.203709, 15.940457, 16.361179 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }