{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dd979718-ee86-455b-8ea6-a33992f43043", "symbol": "CHWY", "name": "Chewy Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.089, "architecture_energy": 17.136, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 47.219, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.11, "rotation_up": 39.29, "upward_expansion": 22.77, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 15.13, "downward_expansion": 52.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.224667, 21.267455, 21.548667, 22.519376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.53, "trend_reference": 24.203, "distance_from_trend": -0.027806, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.086923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.162244, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.932234, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160243, "excess_performance": -0.285868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027806, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147622, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.162244, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053736, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.289322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.99202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34581746, "relative_activity": 0.793868, "balance": 0.99202, "dry_up": 0.89013, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093547, "annualized_volatility": 0.515581, "from_high_reference": -0.45908, "from_low_reference": 0.352299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.203, "fair_value_reference": 28.086923, "structural_low": 17.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.024623, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026206, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.537115, "worst_return": -0.327006, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.118876, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.154288, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.689526, "worst_return": -0.293877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.244814, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.332534, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.704588, "worst_return": -0.371478, 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-0.106886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.199076, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029019, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169248, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067928, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.187575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": 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"fair_value": 28.371346, "relative_strength": -38.69327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.097694, "energy": 49.251916, "activity_lines": [ 19.945333, 20.168364, 21.881238, 23.312452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.93, "volume": 40818063, "typical_volume": 43861398.95, "trend": 25.241667, "fair_value": 28.279103, "relative_strength": -36.638575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.620656, "energy": 35.829703, "activity_lines": [ 20.402, 20.229091, 21.660619, 23.009484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.86, "volume": 43375773, "typical_volume": 43644100.7, "trend": 24.854, "fair_value": 28.197372, "relative_strength": -35.65954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.029351, "energy": 26.425729, "activity_lines": [ 20.727333, 20.314182, 21.464238, 22.726796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.6, "volume": 36324598, "typical_volume": 43505210.5, "trend": 24.491, "fair_value": 28.134103, "relative_strength": -30.187342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.396566, "energy": 21.054237, "activity_lines": [ 21.456, 20.723273, 21.455333, 22.581376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.53, "volume": 34581746, "typical_volume": 43561092.65, "trend": 24.203, "fair_value": 28.086923, "relative_strength": -28.932234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.089467, "energy": 17.135641, "activity_lines": [ 22.224667, 21.267455, 21.548667, 22.519376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }