{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dda40910-edd8-4b3f-8aae-c840843f7f3b", "symbol": "TDIV", "name": "FIRST TRUST NASDAQ TECHNOLOGY DIVIDEND INDEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.937, "architecture_energy": 19.148, "architecture_maturity": 61.819, "architecture_confidence": 84.146, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.54, "rotation_up": 26.8, "upward_expansion": 47.98, "deceleration": 84.67, "rotation_down": 31.55, "downward_expansion": 28.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 111.942507, 112.211524, 112.385525, 109.405541 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 117.04, "trend_reference": 105.651682, "distance_from_trend": 0.107791, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 81.439847, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.437134, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.056435, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.193688, "excess_performance": 0.006235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.107791, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054381, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.437134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033074, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010564, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.193688, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.957357, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449656, "relative_activity": 0.773851, "balance": 0.957357, "dry_up": 0.896589, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052421, "annualized_volatility": 0.239989, "from_high_reference": -0.085797, "from_low_reference": 0.318728 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.651682, "fair_value_reference": 81.439847, "structural_low": 90.24, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009895, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 2.7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.116163, "worst_return": -0.061671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033532, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004874, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.246741, "worst_return": 0.017326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.193593, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018918, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.268341, "worst_return": 0.006469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.727857, "energy": 23.758362, "activity_lines": [ 111.551824, 113.616105, 111.337993, 108.068126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 107.2003, "volume": 656022, "typical_volume": 576707.65, "trend": 104.613145, "fair_value": 80.694577, "relative_strength": -2.130065, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.067706, "energy": 20.555307, "activity_lines": [ 109.733467, 112.272525, 111.332004, 108.25496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.4733, "volume": 592216, "typical_volume": 579032.25, "trend": 105.066156, "fair_value": 81.043899, "relative_strength": 0.299442, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.144054, "energy": 18.563104, "activity_lines": [ 109.68898, 111.599439, 111.584092, 108.633035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 117.04, "volume": 449656, "typical_volume": 581063.1, "trend": 105.651682, "fair_value": 81.439847, "relative_strength": 1.056435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.937091, "energy": 19.147862, "activity_lines": [ 111.942507, 112.211524, 112.385525, 109.405541 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }