{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddae2eb3-4b1d-4f4b-9cb8-20ae1d529676", "symbol": "900913", "name": "Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.244, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 21.19, "architecture_energy": 16.905, "architecture_maturity": 6.731, "architecture_confidence": 47.716, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.48, "rotation_up": 51.5, "upward_expansion": 29.91, "deceleration": 35.01, "rotation_down": 19.31, "downward_expansion": 25.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2164, 0.213836, 0.212905, 0.214703 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.222, "trend_reference": 0.216233, "distance_from_trend": 0.026669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.217912, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.050943, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013699, "excess_performance": 0.056902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018762, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0785, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.010509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.072493, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2471442, "relative_activity": 1.019259, "balance": 1.072493, "dry_up": 1.225807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045045, "annualized_volatility": 0.241044, "from_high_reference": -0.162264, "from_low_reference": 0.132653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.216233, "fair_value_reference": 0.217912, "structural_low": 0.196, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013327, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008767, "regime_survival": 0.1, "best_return": 0.242428, "worst_return": -0.063025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009346, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.039499, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106667, "worst_return": -0.166668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.016807, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.124634, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.24259, "worst_return": -0.261495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014019, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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"down", "direction": -48.119482, "energy": 29.299969, "activity_lines": [ 0.210533, 0.211091, 0.213062, 0.214901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.208, "volume": 1275382, "typical_volume": 3251604.65, "trend": 0.215867, "fair_value": 0.21816, "relative_strength": -3.848699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.527458, "energy": 32.146444, "activity_lines": [ 0.209667, 0.210455, 0.212224, 0.214359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.216, "volume": 3274088, "typical_volume": 2730723.35, "trend": 0.215933, "fair_value": 0.218071, "relative_strength": -1.190823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.515347, "energy": 14.446094, "activity_lines": [ 0.211733, 0.211236, 0.2122, 0.214368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 4868164, "typical_volume": 2538814.75, "trend": 0.215867, "fair_value": 0.217958, "relative_strength": -1.796571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.983836, "energy": 12.718321, "activity_lines": [ 0.213133, 0.211873, 0.212181, 0.214308 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.222, "volume": 2471442, "typical_volume": 2424744.9, "trend": 0.216233, "fair_value": 0.217912, "relative_strength": -1.050943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.189562, "energy": 16.905259, "activity_lines": [ 0.2164, 0.213836, 0.212905, 0.214703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }