{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddb240dc-b3a0-4d26-8cd3-a9a685b37193", "symbol": "DMO", "name": "Western Asset Mortgage Opportunity Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.585, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.748, "architecture_energy": 44.812, "architecture_maturity": 3.154, "architecture_confidence": 93.474, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.92, "rotation_up": 14.49, "upward_expansion": 8.19, "deceleration": 42.98, "rotation_down": 55.17, "downward_expansion": 79.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.452417, 10.485331, 10.594787, 10.616542 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.48, "trend_reference": 10.633376, "distance_from_trend": -0.014424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.689289, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.081607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.851582, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.022858, "excess_performance": -0.148483, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.081607, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065192, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027297, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.022858, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.797534, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300333, "relative_activity": 1.52347, "balance": 0.797534, "dry_up": 1.114856, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020613, "annualized_volatility": 0.119457, "from_high_reference": -0.063073, "from_low_reference": 0.027814 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.633376, "fair_value_reference": 9.689289, "structural_low": 10.196397, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.005329, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.007386, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.050397, "worst_return": -0.069164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029856, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.029651, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.090433, "worst_return": -0.138249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0148, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.10012, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.002476, "worst_return": -0.060318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-18.376783, "energy": 33.763727, "activity_lines": [ 10.537888, 10.644149, 10.680184, 10.668895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.519205, "volume": 227025, "typical_volume": 197005.8, "trend": 10.636439, "fair_value": 9.618195, "relative_strength": -11.760711, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.299609, "energy": 37.430639, "activity_lines": [ 10.529827, 10.60761, 10.664767, 10.661587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.578524, "volume": 189880, "typical_volume": 197623.95, "trend": 10.637692, "fair_value": 9.637591, "relative_strength": -9.555711, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.062953, "energy": 25.834147, "activity_lines": [ 10.547546, 10.587838, 10.656755, 10.657851 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.45, "volume": 162954, "typical_volume": 194566.45, "trend": 10.636511, "fair_value": 9.654654, "relative_strength": -9.83008, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.631624, "energy": 24.592089, "activity_lines": [ 10.521842, 10.548713, 10.638392, 10.645742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.34, "volume": 225953, "typical_volume": 190880.0, "trend": 10.636083, "fair_value": 9.671545, "relative_strength": -11.369169, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.170782, "energy": 51.354678, "activity_lines": [ 10.458152, 10.498072, 10.609701, 10.626612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.48, "volume": 300333, "typical_volume": 197137.5, "trend": 10.633376, "fair_value": 9.689289, "relative_strength": -12.851582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.747893, "energy": 44.811583, "activity_lines": [ 10.452417, 10.485331, 10.594787, 10.616542 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }