{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddb29618-5e7d-4b02-8c4d-a04c19be1b1d", "symbol": "HMM-A", "name": "Hammond Manufacturing Company Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.251, "architecture_energy": 91.5, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 82.68, "upward_expansion": 96.6, "deceleration": 42.41, "rotation_down": 10.07, "downward_expansion": 20.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.029333, 18.575273, 17.320429, 15.812967 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 21.719999, "trend_reference": 13.970928, "distance_from_trend": 0.554657, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.544777, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.059787, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 56.012018, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.104512, "excess_performance": 0.984091, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.554657, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.185934, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.059787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.387653, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.56012, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201938, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.104512, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.194262, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99900, "relative_activity": 1.195691, "balance": 4.194262, "dry_up": 1.085577, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080996, "annualized_volatility": 0.627512, "from_high_reference": -0.083544, "from_low_reference": 1.428284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.970928, "fair_value_reference": 10.544777, "structural_low": 10.06, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.023106, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.366667, "median_excess_return": -0.007979, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.156701, "worst_return": -0.116677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.055832, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.020406, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.492135, "worst_return": -0.190906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008045, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.139674, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.593387, "worst_return": -0.097002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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12.182106, "fair_value": 9.945907, "relative_strength": 37.098242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.456353, "energy": 87.826629, "activity_lines": [ 17.862, 16.48, 14.177683, 13.168795 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 16.620001, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 79880.0, "trend": 12.35552, "fair_value": 10.015467, "relative_strength": 30.770014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.637951, "energy": 67.006407, "activity_lines": [ 17.478, 16.792728, 14.547503, 13.455111 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 15.2, "volume": 13100, "typical_volume": 77215.0, "trend": 12.483263, "fair_value": 10.075171, "relative_strength": 19.143989, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.063148, "energy": 55.154481, "activity_lines": [ 16.654, 16.737818, 14.751092, 13.638626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 26400, "typical_volume": 77225.0, "trend": 12.63004, "fair_value": 10.141401, "relative_strength": 24.89237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.526533, "energy": 40.726179, "activity_lines": [ 16.29, 16.759819, 15.019064, 13.873254 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.92, "volume": 52800, "typical_volume": 78695.0, "trend": 12.817443, "fair_value": 10.212822, "relative_strength": 30.151368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.595386, "energy": 37.088951, "activity_lines": [ 16.348, 16.818182, 15.337273, 14.150025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.5, "volume": 56000, "typical_volume": 80750.0, "trend": 13.023847, "fair_value": 10.288967, "relative_strength": 33.959617, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.121661, "energy": 41.202663, "activity_lines": [ 16.704, 16.914364, 15.682619, 14.452126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 39800, "typical_volume": 80150.0, "trend": 13.228874, "fair_value": 10.359265, "relative_strength": 28.875719, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.446151, "energy": 41.958173, "activity_lines": [ 16.88, 16.892182, 15.95067, 14.708652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.23, "volume": 167100, "typical_volume": 82370.0, "trend": 13.604246, "fair_value": 10.455354, "relative_strength": 67.061335, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.324461, "energy": 69.197206, "activity_lines": [ 18.774, 17.823091, 16.688095, 15.28937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.719999, "volume": 99900, "typical_volume": 83550.0, "trend": 13.970928, "fair_value": 10.544777, "relative_strength": 56.012018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.250618, "energy": 91.500265, "activity_lines": [ 20.029333, 18.575273, 17.320429, 15.812967 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }