{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddcb136e-c60e-4dbb-9188-2e9ddd929f59", "symbol": "ASX", "name": "ASE Industrial Holding Co Ltd ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.925, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.168, "architecture_energy": 21.039, "architecture_maturity": 75.909, "architecture_confidence": 93.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.67, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 57.97, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 28.38, "downward_expansion": 19.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.175333, 38.297778, 36.913152, 34.001777 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 37.39, "trend_reference": 29.988414, "distance_from_trend": 0.246815, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.828246, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.703886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 48.369433, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.789852, "excess_performance": 0.664227, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.246815, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.340364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.703886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327421, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.483694, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45124, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.789852, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139565, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40578559, "relative_activity": 0.878026, "balance": 1.139565, "dry_up": 1.003679, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.145801, "annualized_volatility": 0.524853, "from_high_reference": -0.174067, "from_low_reference": 2.927521 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.988414, "fair_value_reference": 13.828246, "structural_low": 20.455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049465, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.029515, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.417864, "worst_return": -0.029146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.157897, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.071025, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.861343, "worst_return": -0.127197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261788, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.138861, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.43002, "worst_return": -0.034345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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[ 39.759853, 38.06418, 34.000924, 30.723093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.66, "volume": 52793919, "typical_volume": 44245491.45, "trend": 27.240747, "fair_value": 13.06901, "relative_strength": 87.943728, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.810822, "energy": 64.290646, "activity_lines": [ 41.117692, 39.171045, 35.17277, 31.775733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.41, "volume": 50185440, "typical_volume": 44963060.45, "trend": 28.015747, "fair_value": 13.268704, "relative_strength": 68.139608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.855323, "energy": 54.482151, "activity_lines": [ 40.461896, 39.30391, 35.850806, 32.49633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.84, "volume": 38281973, "typical_volume": 44483780.45, "trend": 28.719747, "fair_value": 13.454301, "relative_strength": 58.917852, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.285698, "energy": 45.132336, "activity_lines": [ 39.239198, 39.075321, 36.31208, 33.065637 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.17, "volume": 56496977, "typical_volume": 45658703.75, "trend": 29.330081, "fair_value": 13.633586, "relative_strength": 47.28797, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.515703, "energy": 28.587705, "activity_lines": [ 37.682048, 38.488004, 36.53945, 33.481782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.39, "volume": 40578559, "typical_volume": 46215689.55, "trend": 29.988414, "fair_value": 13.828246, "relative_strength": 48.369433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.167861, "energy": 21.038788, "activity_lines": [ 37.175333, 38.297778, 36.913152, 34.001777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }