{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddcb4c8c-a25c-4eaf-aa1a-dc7c76b8c310", "symbol": "CMUSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI EMU SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.109, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.997, "architecture_energy": 54.094, "architecture_maturity": 62.244, "architecture_confidence": 68.489, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.48, "rotation_up": 43.48, "upward_expansion": 69.14, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.86, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.534666, 109.631273, 108.319429, 106.354667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 110.879997, "trend_reference": 104.058333, "distance_from_trend": 0.065556, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.313397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.227725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.071273, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.105043, "excess_performance": -0.065849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065556, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043062, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.227725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034363, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001554, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105043, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665839, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 996, "relative_activity": 0.656992, "balance": 0.665839, "dry_up": 0.775231, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014694, "annualized_volatility": 0.148709, "from_high_reference": -0.004847, "from_low_reference": 0.238191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.058333, "fair_value_reference": 90.313397, "structural_low": 92.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012626, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.003454, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.076471, "worst_return": -0.028645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023756, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.017531, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.085638, "worst_return": -0.021488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.051043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.078582, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.079389, "worst_return": 0.031316, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.079067, "energy": 90.025485, "activity_lines": [ 110.120002, 108.927637, 105.998715, 104.25785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 109.959999, "volume": 2710, "typical_volume": 1370.1, "trend": 102.526, "fair_value": 89.481154, "relative_strength": -4.496035, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.108085, "energy": 87.340054, "activity_lines": [ 110.209334, 109.352728, 106.587096, 104.767807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.419998, "volume": 2121, "typical_volume": 1459.25, "trend": 102.921667, "fair_value": 89.687243, "relative_strength": -4.309146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.468576, "energy": 68.679528, "activity_lines": [ 109.645333, 109.367637, 106.987286, 105.148065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.059998, "volume": 1501, "typical_volume": 1534.0, "trend": 103.316, "fair_value": 89.881474, "relative_strength": -3.430917, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.419084, "energy": 56.744738, "activity_lines": [ 109.342666, 109.428, 107.425476, 105.544086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 108.660004, "volume": 83, "typical_volume": 1534.15, "trend": 103.66, "fair_value": 90.088205, "relative_strength": -4.331079, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.357017, "energy": 46.313705, "activity_lines": [ 109.010667, 109.332001, 107.792715, 105.88886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.879997, "volume": 996, "typical_volume": 1516.0, "trend": 104.058333, "fair_value": 90.313397, "relative_strength": -5.071273, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.997402, "energy": 54.093987, "activity_lines": [ 109.534666, 109.631273, 108.319429, 106.354667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }