{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ddccad79-0c20-424c-bb9f-06a8e9783ecd", "symbol": "EOLS", "name": "Evolus Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 86.999, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.395, "architecture_energy": 27.028, "architecture_maturity": 68.784, "architecture_confidence": 92.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.15, "rotation_up": 32.83, "upward_expansion": 57.28, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 32.35, "downward_expansion": 23.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.488, 6.529273, 6.363143, 5.992301 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.59, "trend_reference": 5.547, "distance_from_trend": 0.368307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.904936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.233715, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.258433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.686667, "excess_performance": 0.499213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.368307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013106, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.233715, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134641, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.092584, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.319991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.686667, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275807, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6968153, "relative_activity": 1.718355, "balance": 1.275807, "dry_up": 1.090953, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106921, "annualized_volatility": 0.722764, "from_high_reference": -0.045283, "from_low_reference": 0.966321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.547, "fair_value_reference": 9.904936, "structural_low": 3.86, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.002522, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.090662, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.201024, "worst_return": -0.150163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.028659, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217176, "worst_return": -0.145455, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09942, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.040877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.50272, "worst_return": -0.31, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.227273, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.27937, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.800871, "worst_return": -0.403799, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11564, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025087, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.217839, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13119, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277273, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.365153, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261364, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.292683, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.169565, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269231, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9.52, "volume": 2837915, "typical_volume": 3010607.25, "trend": 8.765667, "fair_value": 8.69, "relative_strength": -4.821821, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.646742, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.317104, "energy": 49.367049, "activity_lines": [ 6.802, 6.713636, 6.155429, 5.797677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.73, "volume": 4654392, "typical_volume": 4875598.85, "trend": 5.542333, "fair_value": 9.971923, "relative_strength": -16.900051, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.732274, "energy": 30.216365, "activity_lines": [ 6.445333, 6.552182, 6.161667, 5.806903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.98, "volume": 2977299, "typical_volume": 4051995.65, "trend": 5.511667, "fair_value": 9.945321, "relative_strength": -10.452415, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.832169, "energy": 22.745234, "activity_lines": [ 6.238667, 6.447636, 6.184905, 5.83514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.84, "volume": 3095983, "typical_volume": 3968444.55, "trend": 5.482333, "fair_value": 9.919423, "relative_strength": -11.617545, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.721783, "energy": 23.666026, "activity_lines": [ 6.028667, 6.327091, 6.192667, 5.856323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.59, "volume": 6968153, "typical_volume": 4055130.85, "trend": 5.547, "fair_value": 9.904936, "relative_strength": 9.258433, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.395167, "energy": 27.027564, "activity_lines": [ 6.488, 6.529273, 6.363143, 5.992301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }